One of Bitcoin’s most closely watched on-chain metrics just woke up from an 11-month nap. CryptoQuant reports that the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, has broken out of a prolonged suppressed state, a development the analytics firm interprets as a potential signal that the market cycle is shifting.
For the uninitiated, SOPR measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. When the ratio sits above 1.0, the average coin being moved is being sold for more than it was purchased. Below 1.0, holders are realizing losses.
What the SOPR break actually means
The metric comes in several flavors, and each tells a slightly different story. The long-term holder version (LTH-SOPR) tracks coins that have sat dormant for extended periods before moving, while the short-term holder version (STH-SOPR) captures recent buyers.
CryptoQuant’s analysis points to a pattern that rhymes with early 2023, when similar SOPR behavior preceded a historic Bitcoin rally. During the 2025-2026 analysis window, the firm observed multiple instances of the STH-SOPR dipping below 0.95 before bouncing back above 1.0. Those rebounds consistently aligned with recovery phases in Bitcoin’s price.
Meanwhile, the LTH-SOPR has been drifting toward neutral territory, which in context suggests long-term holders are neither panic-selling nor aggressively taking profits.
The bigger on-chain picture
CryptoQuant’s proprietary PnL Index, which bundles SOPR alongside other profitability metrics, has crossed above its 365-day moving average.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju weighed in directly, declaring in August 2026 that the Bitcoin bear market had concluded. His assessment leaned on the convergence of these proprietary indices, all of which incorporate SOPR data as a core component.
Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $62,000 and $80,000 during this analytical period. Each dip toward the lower end of that range has been met with buying pressure, a behavior consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
ETF inflows add fuel to the on-chain story
The on-chain signals aren’t developing in a vacuum. Bitcoin ETF inflows have provided a structural demand layer that didn’t exist during previous cycles. When SOPR breaks bullish at the same time that ETF-driven demand is steady, on-chain holders become less willing to sell at current prices, which tightens supply, while ETF products need to acquire actual Bitcoin to back their shares, adding consistent bid-side pressure.
On-chain metrics are descriptive tools, not crystal balls. SOPR captures what has already happened on the blockchain, and the macro environment, regulatory developments, and shifts in institutional appetite could all override what the on-chain data is currently suggesting.
A sustained move above the upper bound of the $62,000 to $80,000 range would be far more convincing confirmation of a cycle reversal than the SOPR break alone.