Bitcoin BTC has fallen towards $80,000 after lower-than-expected US jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2 came in at 200,000, below the 205,000 forecast tracked by economists.
The figure also followed last week’s revised reading of 190,000.
Markets interpreted the latest print as another sign that layoffs remain limited despite tighter financial conditions and ongoing pressure across several sectors of the economy.
Bitcoin briefly recovered above $81,500 earlier today after dropping from a four-month high near $82,750 earlier in the week, with improving geopolitical sentiment helping stabilise risk appetite.
Trading activity strengthened after reports emerged that Iran was reviewing a US ceasefire proposal tied to reopening trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns around oil supply disruptions that had weighed on global markets.
Reports surrounding the proposed framework suggested the deal included terms linked to maritime access and a ceasefire arrangement, although discussions around Iran’s nuclear program were reportedly left for later talks.
US President Donald Trump later stated that no final agreement had been reached and warned that military operations could intensify if Tehran rejected the proposal.
Strong labor data tempers rate cut hopes
Stronger labor readings have repeatedly reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, pushing Treasury yields higher and creating pressure on speculative assets such as Bitcoin.
A similar reaction was seen in February after a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report triggered a crypto market pullback that sent Bitcoin below $67,000.
Fresh claims data added to that narrative. In mid-April, initial claims came in at 207,000 against expectations of 213,000, after which Bitcoin fell from roughly $75,000 to around $74,600 immediately following the release before stabilizing later in the session.
Analysts at the time linked the decline to concerns that a resilient labor market could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Current market pricing suggests investors remain focused on whether inflation data can soften enough to offset labor market resilience.
Bitcoin could face a period of sideways consolidation as traders weigh these conflicting macroeconomic and geopolitical signals.
While the easing of tensions in the Middle East provides a necessary floor for risk-on sentiment, the reality of higher-for-longer interest rates serves as a persistent ceiling for price appreciation.
Market participants are now largely looking toward the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to determine if inflation is cooling enough to justify a policy shift, regardless of the labor market’s strength.
Bitcoin could see further volatility if the diplomatic window regarding the Iran ceasefire closes without a formal agreement.
A breakdown in talks would likely send oil prices rebounding and drive investors back into the safety of the US Dollar, potentially pushing the digital asset toward its next major support level near $78,000.
On the other hand, a confirmed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could provide the bullish momentum needed for Bitcoin to retest its recent highs, as the removal of a major global supply chain risk traditionally favors speculative growth.
At press time, Bitcoin price was down roughly 2% in the past 24 hours, trading at $80,226.