Bitcoin sell-off intensifies as US-Iran tensions rise

A rotation from high-risk assets like Bitcoin into safer ones is underway as US-Iran tensions escalate, and Bitcoin’s dip to $60,000 in April looks increasingly likely. The market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 sits at 38% YES, up from 30% a week ago.

Market reaction

Though odds improved over the past week, the ongoing sell-off could cap further upside. The $150,000 Bitcoin target sits at 10% YES, reflecting deep skepticism about a steep price surge. Traders are also watching Bitcoin’s potential dip to $60,000 in April, as risk aversion cuts demand for speculative assets. Volume data on that market is thin, suggesting participants are waiting for concrete price action before committing.

Why it matters

The $100,000 Bitcoin market trades $1,776/day in actual USDC, with $10,824 needed to move the price five points — moderate liquidity at best. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a minor uptick, likely driven by speculative traders reacting to the sell-off news. Any geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran could accelerate the risk-off rotation and push these odds lower.

What to watch

At 38¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2026 pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.63x return. Betting on Bitcoin reaching $150,000 offers a 10x return at 10¢. These payouts could attract buyers who expect geopolitical de-escalation or positive regulatory news to reverse the current trend. Statements from Jerome Powell on monetary policy or Gary Gensler on crypto regulation could shift sentiment quickly — the next FOMC meeting or SEC announcement is worth tracking closely.

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