TLDR:
- Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 return of -23.21% is the third-worst since 2013, trailing only Q1 2018 and Q1 2014 losses.
- Ethereum recorded a -32.17% Q1 2026 return, falling well below its historical quarterly average of +66.45%.
- Bitcoin’s Q1 average of +45.90% is heavily skewed by extreme years like 2013’s record gain of +539.96%.
- Around $1.8 billion in sell orders hit derivatives books in one hour, linked to rising US-Iran geopolitical tension.
Bitcoin Q1 2026 return has dropped to -23.21%, marking one of the weakest first-quarter performances since 2013.
Ethereum also recorded a -32.17% decline during the same period. Data from CoinGlass shows both assets are trading well below their historical quarterly averages.
The numbers reflect broader stress across digital asset markets, driven by macro pressure and rising geopolitical tensions that have rattled investor confidence heading into the second quarter.
Bitcoin Falls to Third-Worst Q1 Since 2013
Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 return stands at -23.21%, placing it among the worst quarterly performances on record. Only Q1 2018 and Q1 2014 recorded steeper losses, at -49.7% and -37.42% respectively.
Both of those periods played out during confirmed bear-market cycles. The current result sits far below the historical Q1 average of +45.90%.
That average, however, is skewed by extreme years like 2013, when Bitcoin gained +539.96% in the first quarter. The 2021 Q1 also returned +103.17%, further pulling the average higher.
Source: Coinglass
The historical Q1 median sits at -2.26%, meaning negative quarters are not unusual. Still, a -23.21% return points to conditions well outside normal seasonal weakness.
The data suggests the market is dealing with more than routine volatility. Liquidity contraction and macro risk repricing appear to be key factors.
These are patterns typically seen during post-cycle deleveraging phases. Investors are not showing signs of early-cycle accumulation at this stage.
Ethereum’s Q1 performance tells a similar story, though the losses run deeper. Its -32.17% return is the third-worst Q1 since 2016. This is well below its historical Q1 average of +66.45% and median of +4.37%.
Derivatives Market Shows Signs of Forced Selling
Ethereum’s higher beta relative to Bitcoin means it tends to fall harder during risk-off periods. The Q1 2026 data is consistent with that pattern.
Capital rotation away from higher-volatility assets has been visible across the market. Together, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance points to a defensive macro posture rather than recovery.
Market analyst CryptoTice flagged a sharp spike in selling pressure through derivatives. The analyst noted that roughly $1.8 billion in aggressive market sell orders hit the books within a single hour.
Rising US-Iran tensions were cited as the catalyst behind the move. The analyst described it as urgency-driven selling rather than a rotation.
When derivatives lead price action, leverage tends to unwind quickly. Liquidations can cascade, and volatility expands rapidly as a result.
CryptoTice pointed to funding rates, open interest, and liquidity gaps as key areas to monitor. Stress in the derivatives market often shows up before spot prices fully react.
The combined picture across spot and derivatives markets reflects a cautious environment. Both retail and institutional participants appear to be reducing exposure rather than adding risk.
Geopolitical factors have added a layer of uncertainty that is difficult to price. Until clarity returns, volatility is likely to remain elevated across the crypto market.
