Bitcoin price plunged to an intraday low of approximately $58,000 Thursday morning before staging a partial recovery, as a bear market that began after October’s all-time high shows no clear signs of exhaustion — and a closely watched long-term valuation model appears to have broken for the first time in its history.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap was trading around $59,315 as of mid-morning Thursday, down more than 3% on the day and roughly 53% below its October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,198.
Bitcoin price rallied as high as $61,868 in the early hours before sellers overwhelmed buyers, sending the price off a cliff in a matter of minutes.
Thursday’s flash crash followed an already bruising 24 hours. On Wednesday, Bitcoin had already traded below $60,000 for a time at the lower support trendline of the Bitcoin Power Law — a long-term valuation model popularized by physicist Giovanni Santostasi that plots price against time on a logarithmic scale and has historically contained all of Bitcoin’s price action for over a decade.
Analysts tracking the model noted that while Bitcoin has flirted with the floor in past market dislocations — most notably during the March 2020 COVID crash and the FTX collapse in November 2022 — a sustained close below the support band had never been registered until this week.
The bitcoin price support trendline, which drifts upward roughly 0.093% per day as Bitcoin’s network matures, was sitting in the low $60,000s at the time of the breakdown. Thursday’s intraday dip to the $58,000s pushed prices further below that level, deepening the historic deviation.
Whether the breach constitutes a structural breakdown of the model — or a temporary excursion that will ultimately resolve higher — is up for debate.
Historically, the Power Law Oscillator reaching extreme lows has preceded significant recoveries.
Bitcoin price sell-off
The macro backdrop driving the selloff over the last couple months is well-documented. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows in the billions in recent weeks. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years, rattling institutional confidence.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have sent oil prices higher, reviving inflation fears and prompting some Federal Reserve officials to float the possibility of rate hikes rather than cuts.
Capital rotation out of crypto and into AI-related equities has compounded the pressure, with investors chasing a different technology narrative entirely.
With Bitcoin price now sitting more than 50% below its all-time high and the Power Law model in uncharted territory, bulls face a critical test with bears clearly in control.
