Bitcoin is pressing up against $75,000, a price it has repeatedly failed to surpass since early February, putting the broader crypto market on breakout watch after more than two months of range-bound trading.
Traders have been building short positions around that level, betting on another rejection. Data from CoinGlass shows roughly $200 million in shorts would be liquidated if BTC pushes above $75,500 — a dynamic that could accelerate any upside move.
At the same time, macroeconomic sentiment is improving. U.S. equities rallied Monday, with the S&P 500 index posting its highest close since before the Iran conflict escalated, after President Donald Trump signaled willingness to strike a deal with Tehran.
Precious metals also made a comeback on Tuesday with silver rallying by 2.9% since midnight UTC while gold added 0.7% to $4,775 per ounce.
Derivatives positioning
- Notional open interest (OI) in crypto futures rose to $126 billion, the most since Jan. 31, according to Coinglass.
- Ether’s OI surged to 14.99 million ETH ($35.79 billion), the highest since July. The growth likely stems from increased demand for bullish bets because the 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is positive, indicating that aggressive buying is dominating the flow. Positive funding rates also suggest the same.
- Bitcoin OI has surged to a record high of 767,000 BTC, while positive CVD and funding rates also signal bullish positioning.
- ZEC, SOL and HYPE are other notable coins displaying bullish patterns.
- It’s worth noting that while funding rates are positive for most tokens, they are not unusually high. This is a sweet spot for a grind higher, and indicates that the market is not overheated.
- However, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) indexes for bitcoin and ether, BVIV and EVIV, have stopped declining over the past two days. Until recently, the spot-price rally was accompanied by falling IV, a dynamic that has now shifted, with IV stabilizing even as prices continue to rise. If this divergence persists or widens, it could raise questions about the sustainability of the price gains.
- Data from Deribit shows that dealer gamma positioning is deeply negative at $75,000. So, if BTC rises past this level, dealers could buy into the rising market to hedge their exposure back to neutral. This could accelerate the uptrend. Similarly, if prices turn lower from $75,000, dealers could sell into a falling market, accelerating the decline.
- Bitcoin puts remain pricier than calls across all time frames, risk reversals show. In ether’s case, the sentiment has flipped bullish in favor of calls in short-term expiries. The long-end continues to show a bias for puts.
Token talk
- The altcoin market is taking a back seat for Tuesday’s breakout attempt, with the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) indexes posting gains of 0.5%-0.7% since midnight, beating the benchmarks weighted toward altcoins.
- Ether (ETH) is up by 0.7% since midnight, beating majors XRP and SOL, which are down by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. ADA lost 2.2% overnight.
- Memecoins BONK, FLOKI and WIF have cooled after a sector-wide rally on Monday, each losing between 2.4% and 3% since midnight as traders focus on the potential bitcoin breakout.
- Ethena (ENA) gained 5.6% over the past 24 hours, before giving back 4% during Asian and European hours.
- The altcoin market is delicately poised. If bitcoin breaks above $75,000 and consolidates, fresh capital will rotate into more speculative bets. For now the focus is on BTC.