We are about to retest the 50-week EMA from below. This is a critical make-or-break moment for what still qualifies as a relief rally.
We need BTC to rise past this mark in the next few weeks. Otherwise, a rejection of a move above that line, which currently sits at $85,700, could result in the continuation of BTC’s downtrend toward that initial $58,000 target.
Just to clarify, that is not our base scenario for now, but we’ll have to wait for the price to retest that level and see how things go before jumping to conclusions. Hence, we still expect a 6% gain ahead for BTC to reach that $85K near-term target.
As we have also shared in previous Bitcoin price predictions, we spotted a historical buy signal in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has yielded positive results in the past. Whenever the RSI drops below 30, the price tends to recover strongly and rally to a new all-time high around 12 to 24 months later.
This pattern has repeated three times already in the past 12 years, and the situation right now for the crypto market is not as bad as to justify sustained bearish sentiment. Even though social volumes are sitting at low levels, this is normal for bear markets.
The smart money is creeping in, whales are accumulating, ETF inflows are getting stronger, and traders are starting to show up again. All of these factors play in favor of a bullish outlook for BTC in the mid-term.
BTC Retreats After Hitting 200D EMA, But Bullish Momentum Persists
Heading to the daily chart, we finally hit the 200-day EMA and completed a reversion to the mean move. The price just retreated after hitting this line, which is perfectly normal.