At the same time, Bitcoin has continued to rally despite conditions that often pressure risk assets. The rose 19% in just over a month and topped $80,000 on Monday for the first time since January. Oil traded above $100, while Bloomberg’s commodity futures index reached a decade high. U.S. consumer inflation expectations also rose, adding pressure to the inflation debate.
In the usual market playbook, higher inflation supports tighter Federal Reserve policy. Higher rates can lift Treasury yields and reduce interest in assets without yield, including Bitcoin.
, when aggressive Fed rate hikes partly helped trigger a sharp crash. This time, though, Bitcoin has not followed the same script. Bitfinex analysts said macro signals remain divided, with commodities pricing supply stress while risk assets keep trading higher. They said this gap raises questions about the current risk-on setting.
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ETF flows have also strengthened the alternative view. Since March, 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $4.45 billion, nearly reversing the earlier autumn outflows.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said institutional flows point to a broader shift in hedging. He said digital assets now sit alongside gold in some hedging approaches.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, also described as an inflation hedge and liquid store of value. He said those features could support a 3.5 times price increase over three years.