The dream of Bitcoin roaring back to six figures any time soon is fading fast. After a bruising few months for crypto, traders are quietly shifting from ‘wen $100K?’ optimism to something far more cautious, with prediction markets now signalling that a deeper Bitcoin market slump is more likely than a rapid return to record highs.
Bitcoin market sentiment continues to cool, as macro uncertainty weighs on risk assets and last year’s October crash still hangs over the charts. While die-hard supporters insist six figures are only a matter of time, the people putting real money behind their bets are increasingly pricing that scenario out for early 2026.
Bitcoin Market Slump Keeps $100K Out Of Reach – For Now
On the major prediction platforms, the message is blunt: a near-term breakout looks unlikely. Traders on leading markets now see a low probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 in the first half of 2026, reflecting fading bullish momentum.
As of Thursday, prediction markets give less than a 10% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before 1 February. On Polymarket, odds sit at around 6% that BTC crosses $100,000 before 31 January, while on Kalshi the probability is only about 7% that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before month-end.
Those muted expectations come despite the fact that Bitcoin’s 2026 high so far already stands at $97,900, recorded on 14 January. The asset last traded above $100,000 on 13 November, before a sharp sell-off reset market sentiment and reminded traders how quickly upside can evaporate.
History would normally offer some comfort. After a previous drawdown of 25.5%, Bitcoin did eventually reclaim $100,000, taking roughly 93 days to get back to six figures. On that basis, a mid-February recovery might look plausible – if history repeats. This time, however, prediction market traders appear far less optimistic, suggesting they no longer trust past cycles to map cleanly onto the current environment.
Bitcoin Market Slump Bets Point To New Lows Before Any Rebound
Instead of a swift V‑shaped recovery, traders are bracing for a longer grind. Kalshi participants assign roughly 65% odds that Bitcoin will break above $100,000 before June, implying that a move back to six figures is more likely later in the first half of the year, after an extended period of consolidation rather than an immediate surge.
On Polymarket, the skew is even clearer towards downside first, upside later. Traders there are increasingly anticipating that Bitcoin will have to go lower before it can sustainably go higher:
- 65% odds BTC falls to $80,000 before returning to $100K
- 54% odds of a $70,000 bottom in 2026
- 50% odds of $65,000
- 42% odds BTC drops as low as $60,000
That distribution of bets reflects growing caution as financial conditions tighten, bond yields rise and geopolitical risks refuse to fade. In that kind of backdrop, traders appear less inclined to chase aggressive upside and more focused on protecting capital through what could be a choppy year.
Bitcoin Market Slump Tests Strategy’s Cost Basis – But Not Its Nerve
A key focal point for prediction markets is whether Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average purchase price, currently around $75,979 per BTC. This ‘cost basis’ has become an informal line in the sand for many observers, symbolising the level at which one of the most prominent corporate buyers of Bitcoin would, on paper, be under water.
Polymarket data shows a 75% probability that Bitcoin trades below Strategy’s cost basis in 2026 – hence the ’75 per cent chance’ traders now see of BTC dipping under a crucial level. Yet despite those expectations, markets remain confident that Strategy itself will not capitulate.
There are less than 26% odds that Strategy sells Bitcoin this year, according to the same prediction markets. Instead, there is an 84% probability the firm holds more than 800,000 BTC by 31 December, underlining the belief that its long-term thesis remains intact even if the price action turns painful in the short term.
Recent moves back that up. Last week, Strategy expanded its treasury to 709,715 BTC, purchasing 22,305 BTC for approximately $2.13 billion. That kind of buying, even as near-term price outlooks deteriorate, reinforces its accumulation strategy and sends a signal that some large players are prepared to sit through further volatility.
For now, with Bitcoin trading near $89,500, prediction market pricing highlights a broader shift since the October 2025 crash. Long-term conviction among institutions and corporate treasury buyers is still there, but short-term optimism has cooled sharply. Traders appear to be waiting for clearer macro catalysts, easier liquidity conditions or renewed ETF inflows before seriously backing another run at $100,000.
According to Cointelegraph, the consensus from prediction markets is that Bitcoin’s next major move is more likely to arrive later in 2026 than in the coming weeks – and that any path back to six figures may first run through lower levels.