Bitcoin has struggled this year, breaking its correlation to technology stocks as Elon Musk issues a prediction that could change everything.
Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
The bitcoin price has climbed in recent weeks, adding almost 15% since plunging to recent lows of $57,000 per bitcoin, though bitcoin remains far from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 (despite BlackRock’s chief executive predicting a coming boom).
Now, the market awaits bitcoin’s “ultimate catalyst,” bitcoin and crypto traders are braced for the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate meeting, described as among “the most uncertain in years,” by one analyst.
Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will get you up to date and keep you ahead of the bitcoin price and crypto market swings
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh could be about to deliver a big surprise to bitcoin traders.
Getty Images
Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed chair, “is one of the most uncertain in years,” according to Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes, who wrote in an emailed note that, anything divisive “from Warsh could lead to bitcoin’s outperformance continuing.”
The market is roughly 70/30 split on whether Fed officials led by the intentionally inscrutable Warsh will hold or hike rates, with loosening of monetary policy usually providing a tail wind to risk assets like bitcoin and high-growth technology stocks.
In recent weeks, bitcoin “has quietly rebounded through the month and outperformed U.S. equities,” Rahman wrote. “In July, bitcoin is up 6% versus a flat S&P 500 and against a basket of semiconductors and chipmakers, which are down almost 20% over the same period.”
However, other market watchers are betting on the Fed sounding hawkish even if it fails to deliver an interest rate hike.
“The Fed will have no choice but to strike a hawkish note on Wednesday,” Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said in an emailed note.
“The statement will once again be a short one, and will no doubt avoid the type of forward guidance that chair Warsh has shown a clear aversion to. We instead expect the Fed to rely on familiar phrases about “elevated uncertainty” and a data-dependent approach. This would provide the bank with maximum flexibility to hike at future meetings, without needing to explicitly say as much.”
Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
The bitcoin price has climbed in recent weeks but remains well below it’s October 2025 peak of $126,000 per bitcoin.
Forbes Digital Assets
For now, bitcoin and crypto traders are sounding increasingly happy for the price to remain flat, provided there isn’t another major decline.
“If no major positive catalysts emerge in the coming months, whether from regulation, monetary policy or institutional demand, it’s not unreasonable to think bitcoin’s price could finish the year trading not too far from where it is today,” Koinly chief executive Robin Singh said in an emailed note.
“Bitcoin needs fresh catalysts to reignite investor interest. At the same time, it’s facing an uphill battle as AI continues to capture a bigger share of investor attention and capital. What’s interesting is how quickly sentiment has shifted. Just a year ago, $100,000 was considered a relatively ‘boring’ price for bitcoin. Today, it almost feels like an unrealistic target in the near term.”