Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 Thursday as crypto traders turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched Jackson Hole speech.
The cryptocurrency was trading above $80,000 on Thursday at 2:16 p.m. ET after a sharp advance over the past 10 days. The rally followed steps by the Treasury Department to ease pressure on longer-term government bonds, while investors are now waiting to see whether Warsh takes a tougher stance on inflation when he speaks on Friday.
Warsh will address the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium with inflation still well above the central bank’s 2% goal. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said Wednesday that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier in July, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3%. Both measures rose 0.2% from June.
The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in recent months, but several policymakers are warning that inflation remains too high. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said Thursday that rates may not be restrictive enough, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also indicated she was prepared to act against persistent price pressures, Reuters reported.
Markets were pricing roughly a 34% probability of a September rate increase on Thursday, down from higher levels following Wednesday’s inflation report, according to Reuters. Warsh has also resisted the detailed forward guidance investors became accustomed to under previous Fed leadership, leaving markets with fewer clues about his next move.
Bitcoin’s recent rise has also coincided with Treasury intervention in the bond market. The Treasury Department said last week that it would at least double the maximum size of buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities to $4 billion per operation beginning Sept. 9, a step intended to provide additional liquidity to those markets.
Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage told CoinDesk that Bitcoin’s reaction may depend less on a single Fed meeting than on global liquidity and longer-term yields. The Treasury announcement helped cool a bond selloff and contributed to Bitcoin’s advance, with Kerbage describing the move as largely a liquidity-driven rally.
Warsh’s speech will come after the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached a 19-year high, while the Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 15-16.