A similar spike nearly two decades ago preceded the fall in the US stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio from around 1.3x in 2007 to near 0.6x at the 2009 trough.
McGlone argues that gold’s rare shift from a defensive store of value into a volatile risk asset may be a late-cycle warning.
US equities are now valued near 2.4 times GDP, with McGlone saying that the stock market has effectively become equivalent to “the economy.” That leaves risk assets vulnerable to a post-inflation deflation cycle.
Earlier this year, McGlone predicted Bitcoin to reach $10,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin Bottom Signal Points To Rebound Above $90,000
Despite the bearish risks, one longer-term indicator suggests Bitcoin may already have established a macro bottom near its February lows around $60,000.
The signal appeared after BTC successfully retested its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA; blue wave), a level that historically marked major cycle bottoms in 2019, 2020, and 2022.