Crypto markets shaken by October earthquake
The crypto earthquake that struck in early October continues to send powerful aftershocks. For the first time in seven months, Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, yesterday touching an intraday low of $89,189 before a modest recovery.
This latest decline was triggered by several headwinds. Hawkish tones from United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers last week led interest rate markets to reduce the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to 42%, down from nearly 100% before the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Bitcoin, sitting at the pointy end of the risk spectrum, is highly sensitive to sudden adverse shifts in Fed rate cut expectations.
Investors brace for NVIDIA earnings and US jobs data
Yesterday’s session of de-risking only exacerbated the situation, as investors brace for NVIDIA’s earnings tomorrow morning AEDT and the crucial US September jobs report early Friday AEDT.
Meanwhile, fresh concerns over private credit exposures and a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields hit global sentiment hard. The Nikkei225, one of the world’s best-performing markets, plummeted 3.17% to 48,728 in just one session.
Bitcoin’s sharp correction raises key questions
Bitcoin’s decline from its October all-time high of $126,272 now stands at 29.3%, similar to the 31.5% ‘Liberation Day’ drawdown earlier this year (20 January peak $109,356 to 7 April low $74,434). Yet, the nature of these corrections is different: the Liberation Day sell-off was a gradual, begrudging decline over 77 days, whereas the current drop has been sharp and impulsive, occurring in just 44 days.
The question now is whether the most recent correction has cleared excess leverage and crowded positioning and set the stage for the next upward move, or if it’s merely set the scene for a dead cat bounce before another round of capitulation.
To answer this, we are closely watching the technical backdrop outlined below and looking for clear bullish catalysts such as a standout NVIDIA earnings report or crypto-specific news to drive new buying.