Crypto exchange BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes said recently that Bitcoin’s bull market cycle is already underway, and prices could reach $126,000 per token again on a fresh wave of dollar and yuan liquidity due to AI spending, wartime policies, and infrastructure rearmament. Bitcoin prices have surged beyond $80,000 per token in recent days and appear to be holding above that level during early Wednesday trading house.
Hayes, who is also the chief investment officer for Maelstrom, portrayed crypto’s next leg higher as a macroeconomic liquidity trade instead of a narrow digital-asset story.
‘The bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,’ Hayes wrote in his ‘The Butterfly Touch’ essay this week, linking Bitcoin’s latest outperformance to the start of a new political regime for money creation.
He believes that governments and banks in the US and China are being driven toward looser credit conditions by the AI arms race, military escalation, and a shift away from ‘just-in-time supply chains.’
Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict could push governments outside the US to assess their dependence on dollar-based financial assets. Nations that earlier held surpluses in Treasuries or US equities could reroute capital toward defense, energy, pipelines, and food reserves, which would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions more lenient than usual.
AI Infrastructure Buildout Driven by National Security Push
AI is being rapidly integrated into military systems across countries, driving infrastructure spending in both the US and China. Hayes believes that makes monetary restraint politically challenging because the countries view intelligence as strategically decisive.
Strategy
He said the AI buildout is already moving beyond the cash flows of major tech firms and into credit channels. This matters for crypto because central banks will be forced to support capital expenses for data centres and AI infrastructure.
‘But in the here and now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto will benefit,’ Hayes had written.
He focuses on the belief that AI investment is structurally inflationary and self-reinforcing. He drew parallels with ‘Jevons Paradox’, arguing that low-cost intelligence will ramp compute consumption, and the ‘Red Queen Effect’, where firms must continue spending because advancements at rivals can rapidly depreciate earlier investments.
In all, the cycle ends only when markets reject a big AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns against AI-driven inflation.
Hayes said Bitcoin’s return to $126,000 is now ‘a foregone conclusion’, while identifying $90,000 as a key level where he expects the rally to intensify. ‘I have no idea how high Bitcoin can go,’ he said, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to ‘maximum risk’ unless the landscape changes materially.
He concluded that it is ‘time to shitcoin,’ naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade.
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