Bitcoin Correction Is Over, Next Major Rally Beginning Now (Technical Analysis)

In recent articles, I offered an analysis that the sideways correction that has been playing out since March was nearing its end. The recent 30% drop in BTC-USD appears to have been a clearing capitulation that shook out weak hands, preparing the way for the next bull movement. The action off that low is consistent with the beginnings of such a move.

The leading cryptocurrency has already rallied 26% since bottoming out in the $50,000 area, with the short-term downtrend and price resistance quickly and assertively smashed.

While moves of -29% followed by +26% may seem insane to the uninitiated, in Bitcoin terms this is par for the course. The entire period since March is, in fact, a minor episode that barely registers on longer-term charts.

Let’s have a look at the daily:

Here we can see that the action from the March high has been a garden-variety bull flag pattern, with a series of overlapping subwaves. If you look at the April-August 2023 period, you see many of the same technical features that preceded the big move to new all-time highs. Daily RSI goes down into its green support zone as the 20, 50, and 200-day exponential moving averages compressed together with the price. And then the price took off. You see the same setup today. You also see that the recent drop retested the breakout from the green channel from above. That means the price is about to start an advance with a steeper angle of ascent.

Now on to the all-important weekly chart:

Again, if you check out the condition of weekly RSI before the last rally started in September as well as the configuration of price and the 20 and 50-week EMAs, you see the same setup. Once that short-term red downtrend gets taken out, the rally won’t stop until the weekly RSI gets way back up into its red resistance zone.

The Bitcoin Greed/Fear Index is at a fearful extreme right now. Once that bearishness starts to unwind, Bitcoin will move at +10% clips on a daily basis.

Look out above! To reiterate, my target for this next rally is a minimum of 100k with 300k a distinct possibility. Read my previous articles to get the full analysis of the price targets.