The latest Bitcoin recovery has reignited institutional demand amid a stabilizing macro backdrop, supported by accelerating whale accumulation and renewed trade optimism. The rebound above $115,000 marks the beginning of a potential new price discovery phase following one of the most aggressive deleveraging periods in recent crypto history.
On-chain data shows a slowdown of selling pressure after liquidation-driven volatility, as seen on both spot and futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) flattening across major exchanges.
Since the October 10 correction, Glassnode notes that wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have added over 45,000 BTC. According to Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, this suggests that institutional and high-net-worth participants are actively accumulating during periods of macro uncertainty.
“The post-deleveraging phase appears more technically disciplined compared to the speculative-driven moves that defined Bitcoin’s earlier rallies this year. The move from $110,000 to $115,000 was supported primarily by spot absorption and mild short covering, not by renewed leverage or momentum chasing,” Ehsani said.
Liquidation data also indicates that the market has undergone a healthy reset without overheating. Open interest remains balanced between long and short positioning, reflecting that the market has room to develop fresh directional conviction as macro catalysts evolve. Such formations are notably characterized by neutral funding rates, steady accumulation, and cooling volatility, often followed by sustainable price expansions rather than short-lived short squeezes.
Against the broader backdrop, the de-escalation of U.S.–China trade tensions and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have improved overall market sentiment, lifting both equities and digital assets. The correlation between Bitcoin, equities, and gold has also strengthened. Still, Bitcoin’s relative outperformance compared to traditional safe-haven assets underscores its evolving role as a liquidity-sensitive, high-beta macro instrument.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent comments on making progress in trade negotiations proved to ease systemic fear, helping capital rotation roll back into risk assets and patching up market confidence after a volatile beginning to October. “Now, we wait and see. Bitcoin’s sustainability momentum will depend on a follow-through in policy actions and accumulation continuation,” Ehsani added.
The analyst is pointing to $116,000–$117,000 as the next resistance zone, with a potential upside target between $126,000 and $130,000 if macro conditions continue to improve. The absence of stronger ETF inflows and retail participation, however, might still leave it vulnerable to sharp reversals should sentiment weaken. $100,000 support retest is still on the table, and will depend on macro stability.
Looking ahead, several indicators point toward a sustained bull market, including a selling halt among large holders, the clearing of leveraged excesses, and improving liquidity conditions. Traders, however, remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Venezuela relations and rising tensions in the Middle East. As markets await confirmation of a formal trade agreement, the rebound above $115,000 stands as a reflection of resilience that could shape the next leg of Bitcoin’s market cycle.