Key Takeaways
- BTC reached $65,340 on August 7, marking the highest price point of the month with a daily increase of 1.3%
- July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, representing the first job loss on a monthly basis since February
- Probability of a September Fed rate increase fell from 55% to 42% following the employment report
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States saw $98.85M in net positive flows, extending the streak to five days
- QCP Capital characterized the week’s cryptocurrency market behavior as demonstrating “resilience”
Bitcoin surged to its August peak on Friday following disappointing US employment statistics that altered market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
According to TradingView data, BTC/USD touched $65,340 on the Bitstamp exchange, representing a 1.3% increase during the trading session. Bitcoin was positioned to close the week with gains exceeding 3%.
The rally followed the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ announcement that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 during July. This figure significantly underperformed the consensus forecast of an 85,000 job addition. The decline represented the first negative monthly employment change since February.
The unemployment rate experienced a modest decline to 4.1% compared to June’s 4.2% reading.
Compounding the weaker-than-expected headline figure, employment data for May and June underwent downward revisions totaling 103,000 positions. These adjustments reinforced perceptions that labor market conditions are deteriorating faster than earlier assessments indicated.
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations Adjust Following Employment Data
Financial markets responded swiftly to the employment report. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of a 0.25% rate increase at the Fed’s September policy meeting dropped from 55% on the previous day to approximately 42% after the data release.
As the trading session progressed, market expectations shifted toward the Fed maintaining current interest rates in September.
JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli commented that the employment figures should “marginally lower the chances of a hike at the next meeting.” He emphasized that upcoming inflation data over the next two months would carry greater weight in the Fed’s policy determination.
The S&P 500 opened 0.5% higher following the announcement. The Nasdaq registered gains just above 1%.
Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades shared on X that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band and the Weekly 200 EMA have converged around the $69,000 level. He suggested that a weekly close in the 70K range from this position would serve as a powerful market indicator, adding that the ongoing consolidation pattern would ultimately result in a “large break from compression.”
ETF Inflows Maintain Positive Momentum
US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $98.85 million in net positive flows on August 7, based on SoSoValue data referenced by Wu Blockchain on X. This represented the fifth consecutive trading session with net inflows for US spot Bitcoin products. US spot Ether ETFs similarly attracted $49.60 million in fresh capital, marking their fourth straight day of positive flows.
QCP Capital, a trading firm, characterized the cryptocurrency market’s performance during the week as demonstrating “resilience rather than clear directional confirmation.” The firm observed that events such as the Coldcard wallet security breach and Bitcoin sales by entities including Strategy generated only limited concern in options markets.
Throughout the week, Bitcoin primarily traded within a $62,000 to $65,000 corridor, with the $65,340 peak marking the upper boundary of this range.
