Key Highlights
- Bitcoin surged past the $61,000 mark following disappointing U.S. employment data showing only 57,000 new jobs versus 115,000 expected
- Unemployment figures registered at 4.2%, contributing to mixed signals about Federal Reserve monetary strategy
- Market probability of a Fed rate increase this year declined to 50% from 54% previously
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $221.7 million in net capital on July 2, breaking a 10-session outflow pattern
- Bitcoin is positioned for approximately 3% weekly gains following recovery from a 21-month bottom near $58,000
Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level on Friday as disappointing U.S. employment figures eased expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. This recovery positions the leading cryptocurrency for approximately 3% gains over the weekly period.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, June’s nonfarm payroll expansion totaled merely 57,000 positions. This figure fell dramatically short of the anticipated 115,000. Additionally, May’s employment data underwent downward revision by 43,000 positions.
The jobless rate settled at 4.2%, marginally beneath the projected 4.3%. Though seemingly favorable, this metric signals ongoing transformation within the employment landscape.
Bitcoin exchanged hands near $61,632 during early Friday trading hours, registering approximately 1.9% daily appreciation. Earlier this week, BTC had slipped beneath $58,000 — marking its weakest performance in 21 months.
Market analyst Ted Pillows characterized the movement as a temporary recovery. In his X platform commentary, he stated: “$BTC is now above the $60,000 level. This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.” His observations capture the prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants monitoring BTC’s ability to sustain current levels.
Bitcoin shed over 30% during the initial half of 2026, representing its most severe six-month decline in recent memory. Analysts attributed this downturn primarily to lackluster institutional appetite.
Spot ETF Capital Returns Following Extended Withdrawal Period
The cryptocurrency market received encouragement from renewed exchange-traded fund activity. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net capital inflows totaling $221.7 million on July 2, per SoSoValue analytics. This marked the conclusion of a 10-consecutive-session withdrawal streak.
These sustained outflows had pressured valuations throughout the June period. The turnaround suggests reinvigorated participation from institutional market participants.
Federal Reserve Tightening Probability Decreases
Expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate adjustments have evolved following the employment disclosure. Polymarket prediction markets indicate a 50% likelihood of rate elevation this year, declining from 54% one session prior.
CME FedWatch indicators place the probability of unchanged rates at the upcoming July FOMC gathering at 82.4%, rising from roughly 72% the previous day.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, addressing participants at Thursday’s ECB Forum, indicated that inflationary pressures were moderating. He refrained from providing detailed guidance on the monetary policy trajectory.
The majority of Federal Reserve policymakers had anticipated at least one rate increase this year following June’s FOMC deliberations. Market observers now anticipate policy maintenance in July, with any potential increase deferred to December at the earliest.
The CME FedWatch instrument displayed an 82.4% probability of rate stability at the forthcoming policy meeting.
