TLDR
- Grayscale Research believes Bitcoin reached its cycle low in the $65,000-$70,000 zone during February 2026
- Data from the blockchain indicates recent purchasers are approaching their breakeven point near $74,000
- BTC surged to a 3-month peak of $78,417 following Trump’s extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has entered neutral territory for the first time during this bearish phase
- Market watchers including Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant anticipate a lower trough arriving in late 2026
Grayscale Research has made a bold declaration: Bitcoin’s bottom is already in. According to the investment firm, BTC reached its cycle floor somewhere in the $65,000 to $70,000 zone during February 2026. However, this perspective isn’t universally accepted across the crypto analytics community.
Zach Pandl, who leads research initiatives at Grayscale and previously served as a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs, cited blockchain-based metrics to support this assessment. Following a rally exceeding 20% from the February 5 bottom near $63,000, recent Bitcoin purchasers have been brought back close to their entry prices.
The primary indicator Grayscale referenced is the realized price metric. This measurement calculates the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin units based on their most recent blockchain movement. For coins that have transferred between wallets during the preceding one to three months, the realized price hovers around $74,000 — narrowly beneath Bitcoin’s current trading range.
“Should Bitcoin’s value climb higher in upcoming sessions, additional recent purchasers would transition into profitable positions, which may signal the initial stage of a bull market,” Pandl explained.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month peak of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. This upward movement coincided with President Donald Trump’s announcement extending the US-Iran ceasefire, a development that pushed crude oil valuations back under $90 per barrel. At the time of publication, BTC was exchanging hands around $77,990, with trading activity increasing 14% over the previous 24 hours.
Bull Market Indicator Enters New Phase
Julio Moreno, who directs research operations at CryptoQuant, observed that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has transitioned into neutral range for the first time throughout this bearish period. While this represents a noteworthy development, Moreno reminded observers that a similar pattern emerged briefly during March 2022, after which Bitcoin’s price continued its descent.
Futures market data has also reflected optimistic sentiment. Aggregate BTC futures open interest expanded by nearly 6% to reach $59.53 billion within a 24-hour window. Open interest on the CME platform increased approximately 1%, while Binance registered a 6% jump.
10x Research highlighted that April’s spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows are trending toward the bullish side, despite funding rates maintaining negative territory and trading volumes staying subdued. The research outfit additionally noted that institutional accumulation patterns are emerging sooner in this market cycle compared to the previous two recovery phases.
Contrarian Views Point to Additional Downside
Grayscale’s optimistic outlook doesn’t have unanimous support among market researchers. Benjamin Cowen, who founded Into The Cryptoverse and formerly worked as a researcher at NASA, shared with BeInCrypto that his primary scenario places the cycle bottom in October 2026. He emphasized that an earlier trough would require capitulation significantly more severe than what mid-term years have historically produced.
“Bitcoin has the potential to find its bottom earlier, potentially as soon as May. However, for that scenario to materialize, we would need to witness significant capitulation far below the levels we’ve traditionally observed during midterm years,” Cowen stated.
Joao Wedson, who heads on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, projects a bottom arriving in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has outlined a wider timeframe spanning June through December 2026, with September to November representing the most probable window.
Bitcoin has also managed to push above analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance zone on the weekly timeframe chart. This threshold has historically represented significant inflection points for the digital asset.
