TLDR:
- Analyst Aaron Dishner warns April’s BTC rally is a deceptive move within a larger bear market.
- Historical bottom-year patterns show April relief rallies precede sharper May and June corrections.
- On-Balance Volume and TBO divergence signals suggest Bitcoin’s April recovery lacks real conviction.
- Dishner targets $49,000 as Bitcoin’s key support if the $60,000 price floor breaks down in Q2.
Bitcoin bull trap fears are mounting as analyst Aaron Dishner warns that April’s price recovery is not a sign of bear market reversal.
Drawing on historical bottom-year patterns and technical indicators, Dishner argues that a deceptive relief rally is forming ahead of a sharper May and June correction.
He cautions retail investors against mistaking short-term green candles for a sustained trend shift, noting that the broader bearish structure for Bitcoin remains firmly in place.
April’s Rally Could Be Setting Up Retail Investors for a Fall
Bitcoin has shown sharp price swings this week, drawing fresh attention from traders across the market. Analyst Aaron Dishner urges caution against reading too deeply into recent gains.
He argues the bear market structure remains intact despite the short-term price uptick. Dishner’s analysis draws on the Better Crypto Calendar, tracking monthly returns for BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market.
The data reveals a recurring pattern in bottom years, where relief rallies appear but stay contained within a larger bearish structure. He believes 2026 is following that same path.
He previously flagged a 4.3% price pump triggered by unverified geopolitical news, which reversed quickly. He sees that kind of move as a textbook example of low-liquidity manipulation. Similar fake-outs, he warns, are likely to repeat through April.
On X, Dishner wrote: “The data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June.”
Potential tests of the $70,000 to $80,000 range are part of what he describes as a relief rally phase. Those levels could pull in retail buyers expecting a full trend reversal.
That enthusiasm, he notes, is exactly what makes a bull trap effective. The TradFi phrase “sell in May and walk away” lines up well with his broader outlook this year.
Bottom years, he explains, often include an April bounce, followed by further pain in May and June. A secondary bounce around July is also possible, but only after a more significant drawdown has already occurred.
Technical Signals and Downside Targets Reinforce the Bearish Case
Dishner tracks On-Balance Volume alongside his TBO Indicator to assess the conviction behind any rally. Both metrics are currently weak, despite the recent price move higher.
He reads this as a clear sign that genuine buying pressure is missing from the market. Fresh Trending Breakout divergence warnings have appeared on higher timeframes as well.
These signals, in his view, point toward lower price lows ahead in May and June. His primary downside target for Bitcoin sits at $49,000, should the $60,000 support level fail to hold.
Dishner advises traders to stay patient and avoid chasing short-term green candles in this environment. He recommends waiting for bearish confirmation before entering heavy positions.
Bottom years do create long-term accumulation opportunities, but only for those who remain disciplined through the volatility and false signals along the way.
