Bitcoin (BTC +2.69%) is down by 45% in six months. That kind of volatile swing is probably quite jarring for anyone who recently invested in it for the first time, but overall, it’s a completely normal chapter in the asset’s history.
With that being said, before you commit real dollars to buying this coin, there are a few things worth understanding about what you’re actually signing up for, so let’s dive in.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. There’s no such thing as a guaranteed return
Bitcoin has a reputation for making many millionaires. Nonetheless, as much as you might wish for it, nobody can guarantee that Bitcoin is going to gain in value over any period.
Bitcoin’s annualized volatility clocked in at about 42% in 2025, and that’s actually lower than it was before it became more integrated into the traditional financial system. But it still exhibits roughly 4 times the volatility of the stock market over longer stretches. And since 2015, Bitcoin has entered a bear market (defined as a 20%-plus drawdown without a subsequent 20% recovery) about 34 times, versus just twice for the S&P 500 in the same span.
What this means in practice is that you should expect stretches, sometimes lasting a year or longer, during which your investment in this coin loses value and becomes deeply underwater. For reference, Bitcoin’s 2022 drawdown was 77%. If that kind of decline would cause you to sell, consider whether cryptocurrency is a good fit for your investment goals before buying.
2. Every bull thesis requires patience
Whether you’re drawn to Bitcoin because of its scarcity, its independence from central bank money printing, or the growing wave of institutional and sovereign adoption, every one of those theses is a slow-burn story. There is no “just hold it during this one catalyst and then you’ll get rich quick” story anyone can tell about this asset that’s firmly grounded in facts.
Today’s Change
(2.69%) $1806.42
Current Price
$68943.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.4T
Day’s Range
$66634.00 – $69328.00
52wk Range
$60255.56 – $126079.89
Volume
27B
Regarding scarcity, over 95% of the 21 million possible Bitcoin have already been mined, and the protocol’s next halving won’t occur until April 2028. The halving is always going to be a meaningful supply event for the coin’s future price, but its effects tend to unfold over the course of a handful of quarters or even a couple of years.
The same is true for the narrative around Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. It’s a compelling idea, but Bitcoin has existed for less than two decades and has not yet survived a prolonged inflationary cycle while maintaining its value. The institutional adoption story, while real, is still in the early innings.
In sum, a five-year minimum holding period is a reasonable baseline. Anything shorter than that introduces significant risk that you’ll be forced to sell during a drawdown.
3. Nobody’s in charge, but some voices carry weight
You probably already understand that Bitcoin doesn’t have a CEO, a board, or a corporate headquarters. But before you invest, you need to understand that the absence of a singular executive leader does not mean the coin lacks leaders with heft.
Its protocol is open-source software maintained by a small group of roughly 41 core developers, with just five maintainers authorized to merge code changes. Bitcoin Core, the software package they maintain, runs on about 90% of all full nodes on the network, giving this small group of contributors an outsize role in shaping the protocol’s direction.
Determining which developer proposals are implemented in the protocol is a deliberative social process. Those who consistently make the best technical arguments for a given approach tend to gain some notoriety and ultimately become listened to more.
On the capital side, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor, now hold approximately 3.6% of the total supply of the coin. That’s a staggering concentration. Saylor’s decisions about when and how aggressively to buy (or, hypothetically, sell) directly influence the asset’s price.
Of course, none of this means that Bitcoin is a bad investment. It just means that buying Bitcoin exposes you to certain human-centric risks, which many investors incorrectly assume won’t be relevant to this asset.