No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50 percent since its peak in October 2025 and is currently trading at around 63,000 dollars.
- Experts attribute the decline to ETF outflows, market uncertainty, forced liquidations and macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates.
- Quantum computers could theoretically endanger Bitcoin in the long term, but there is currently no acute threat.
Bitcoin has lost significant value in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around 63,000 dollars – more than 50 percent below its high of over 126,000 dollars in October 2025.
At the same time, discussions about possible technological risks are increasing, particularly in connection with advances in quantum computers and artificial intelligence. While the price trend is strongly influenced by market mechanisms in the short term, long-term security issues are also coming into focus.
For Rino Borini, head of the Bitcoin Economy course at the Zurich School of Business and founder of the Zurich-based crypto company House of Satoshi, the current decline is not a single event. “There is not one reason, but several that came together at the same time,” says the crypto expert to blue News.
One key trigger was the strong outflow of capital from Bitcoin ETFs. EFTs have made it easier for institutional investors in particular to invest in Bitcoin – but have recently also seen outflows in the billions. Borini explains: “Massive amounts of money were recently withdrawn from these ETFs: around 4.4 billion dollars on 13 consecutive trading days from mid-May to early June – the longest such phase since these Bitcoin ETFs have even existed.”
What are ETFs?
- An ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of a specific asset or index. With a Bitcoin ETF, investors can participate in the price performance of Bitcoin without having to buy, hold or manage the cryptocurrency themselves. The units are traded like shares on the stock exchange and make it easier for institutional investors in particular to access the crypto market.
US regulation in the starting blocks
According to him, there were also psychological factors. For example, the partial sale of Bitcoin by Strategy – the US company of Michael Saylor, the best-known Bitcoin investor – may have had little economic impact, but it still had an effect. “Economically insignificant, but psychologically a shock, along the lines of: ‘If even he sells …'”, says Borini. The uncertainty was exacerbated by forced liquidations in the derivatives market and macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and uncertainty about US interest rates.
Michael Saylor is a US entrepreneur and a leading figure in the global Bitcoin community.
Imago
At the same time, Borini emphasizes that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have continued to improve. “A lot of positive things are happening in the background right now,” he says, referring to political developments in the US, among other things: “In the US, the Clarity Act is the first clear crypto regulation to be passed by the Senate.” Institutional acceptance is also continuing to grow. “Around 60 percent of the 25 largest US banks now offer Bitcoin services or are setting them up.”
Tech stocks are booming, botcoin is weakening
Borini also puts the current phase into historical perspective. Sharp declines are nothing out of the ordinary in the Bitcoin market. “We are currently in the sixth bear market, and the five before that were all much more brutal,” he says. Back then, there were slumps of over 80 percent, whereas today the decline is around 50 percent.
A bear market is a longer stock market phase in which prices fall by 20 percent or more from their previous high.
Borini also disagrees with the theory that Bitcoin is simply behaving like a technology stock. “At the moment, the opposite is true: the stock markets are at record highs while Bitcoin is falling.” Rather, Bitcoin is currently a source of liquidity in a market in which capital is being reallocated.
«I’m more worried about our financial system»
However, the real strength of the system is evident over longer periods of time. “This is not a defect in Bitcoin itself, but a completely normal distribution struggle for scarce capital,” says Borini. He continues: “Its actual strength as a scarce, stable money is not demonstrated over weeks anyway, but over many years.”
Despite the uncertainty, he does not see a structural break. Instead, he warns of other risks in the global financial system: “I’m more concerned about our financial system: towering debts, countries like Germany, France and the USA are paying record-high interest rates on their debts.”
“The world is currently delivering many uncertainties”
Borini also believes that further price falls are conceivable in the short term. When asked about the next wave of selling, he says: “To be honest: possible, yes.” At the same time, he emphasizes the uncertainty of the current situation: “I have as little of a crystal ball as anyone else, and the world is currently delivering an unusually large number of uncertainties at the same time.”
From a seasonal perspective, the summer months are often weaker. In addition, outflows from Bitcoin ETFs continue to weigh on the market. “I can well imagine that we will fall below the 60,000 dollar mark again,” says Borini.
Recently, the Bitcoin price has only known one direction: down.
Imago
At the same time, he puts the nervousness into perspective. Such movements mainly affect short-term speculators: “Such downward movements are often violent, but short. They mainly affect the nervous speculators – not the substance, i.e. the long-term hodlers.”
In the long term, he remains optimistic: “I am confident that the ‘worst’ is over and that Bitcoin will climb back to new highs in the medium term.”
Danger for Bitcoin from quantum computers?
In addition to the price decline, the discussion surrounding quantum computers is currently attracting a lot of attention. The background to this is the theoretical possibility that such systems could one day attack the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin.
Unlike conventional computers, a quantum computer not only works with 0 and 1, it also has everything in between at its disposal. This makes it significantly faster than other computers.
Quantum computers threaten the security of existing encryption algorithms.
Keystone
Bitcoin expert Fabian Schär, Professor of Distributed Ledger Technology (Blockchain) and Fintech at the University of Basel, clarifies at the request of blue News that the term “encryption” is often misunderstood in connection with Bitcoin. He explains: “Strictly speaking, Bitcoin does not encrypt anything. The system is based on cryptographic signatures, a kind of electronic proof of authenticity for payment instructions.”
Each user has a pair of keys: a public and a private key. It would only become problematic if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could calculate the private key from the public key. “This is not practicable with normal computers. Anyone who manages this could take control of other people’s Bitcoin balances,” says Schär.
Although this is theoretically possible, it is not yet practicable. “Not yet today. However, there is already an algorithm (the so-called Shor’s algorithm) with which this would theoretically be possible – assuming a sufficiently powerful quantum computer,” says Schär. He also emphasizes that this applies not only to Bitcoin, but also to many of today’s encryption and signature systems.
AI is not the same as a quantum computer
Schär also classifies the frequent conflation of artificial intelligence and quantum computers. “Different things are being mixed up here,” he says. Although AI can theoretically help to find vulnerabilities in implementations, this is not a specific Bitcoin risk.
«All systems that rely on the affected encryption methods will face considerable challenges»
Fabian Schär
Crypto expert
“Bitcoin is comparatively simple,” explains Schär. Risks are more likely in the area of more complex applications such as decentralized financial systems (DeFi), for example credit platforms or crypto exchanges. The latter usually refers to decentralized trading platforms (DEXs) on which users can exchange cryptocurrencies directly with each other – without a bank or central operator.
Adaptations possible – but politically difficult
In principle, Bitcoin can react to new technological developments. Schär says: “All systems that rely on the encryption methods in question will face considerable challenges in the coming years. These are technically solvable. For example, there are alternative methods that are not affected.”
However, the real challenge lies not in the technology, but in the organization of the network. Changes are difficult to implement in a decentralized system, as different interests within the community could lead to conflicts.
With Bitcoin, there is also the explosive question of how to deal with assets that have not been moved for a long time and whose cryptographic signature procedures have not been changed. “If nothing is done, they will eventually become vulnerable. If you intervene, that would be a major breach of the idea behind Bitcoin,” says Schär.