Investment boss makes gloomy crypto prediction
Bitcoin is crashing but one big player is doing well.
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Bitcoin fell to around 60,000 US dollars on Friday night – and the downward trend could continue. Raiffeisen investment manager Matthias Geissbühler names three key reasons for the crash. One major group is at a record high.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- On Friday night, Bitcoin crashed and fell to a low of 60,000 US dollars per coin.
- According to Raiffeisen investment manager Matthias Geissbühler, Bitcoin continues to come under pressure due to the fizzling out of Trump euphoria, the lack of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and capital outflows into precious metals.
- As Bitcoin has no real benefit, no earnings and no convincing new narrative, Geissbühler expects prices to fall below USD 50,000 in the medium term.
- The opposite is true for Alphabet: While cryptos are crashing, Alphabet is achieving record figures with over 400 billion dollars in revenue, strong AI growth, massive investments and a key role for the Zurich site.
Rechtlicher Hinweis
Dieser Beitrag dient ausschliesslich der Information und stellt keine Finanzberatung dar. Die enthaltenen Analysen und Einschätzungen basieren auf gründlicher Recherche, ersetzen jedoch nicht die individuelle Beurteilung durch Fachleute. Die Entwicklung der Finanzmärkte wird von zahlreichen, teils unvorhersehbaren Faktoren beeinflusst. Investitionen in Aktien, Kryptowährungen und andere Finanzprodukte sind mit Risiken verbunden, einschliesslich eines möglichen Kapitalverlusts.
In November, Bitcoin rose to its previous record high of over 126,000 US dollars. Since then, the cryptocurrency has gone into reverse. Shortly after midnight this Friday, Bitcoin sank to around 60,000 US dollars.
What’s going on? And is a recovery to be expected? Raiffeisen investment manager Matthias Geissbühler sees “three main reasons” for the sharp price correction, as he told blue News.
Bitcoin crashed because of these three points
Geissbühler cites the US president as the first point: “Donald Trump presented himself as a crypto president, which is why a lot of money flowed into cryptocurrencies at the start of 2025. However, not much has remained of the big announcements – such as a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The euphoria has faded.”
Geissbühler sees the Federal Reserve as the second reason: “Hopes were high that the US central bank would quickly lower key interest rates and switch to an expansive monetary policy, including new quantitative easing (QE).” Due to stubbornly high inflation, these hopes have been dashed. However, “risk assets” such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would require a continuous supply of liquidity – “and this is currently lacking.”
And thirdly, Geissbühler points to the geopolitical situation: “The geopolitical uncertainties have caused precious metal prices to rise sharply. Many crypto speculators have jumped on the precious metal bandwagon and sold their bitcoins in return, which can be seen in the strong outflows from BTC ETFs, among other things.”
Matthias Geissbühler is Head of Investments at Raiffeisen.
Raiffeisen
Bitcoin could fall even further
Was this just the beginning or is the value of cryptocurrencies stabilizing again? Geissbühler says: “As Bitcoin does not generate income, profits or pay interest or dividends, traditional, fundamental valuation models cannot be used.” Technical analyses are therefore used. And in this respect, the current picture suggests that prices will continue to fall significantly.
“After the sharp sell-off, short-term price recoveries have become more likely,” says Geissbühler. “In the medium term, however, I expect prices to fall significantly below 50,000 US dollars again this year.”
There is a reason for this: “The problem is that none of the existing narratives have held up.” Bitcoin is not a widely usable means of payment, it is not a hedge against inflation and it is not “digital” gold. “In order to drive new investors into the market, a new story is needed – and there is currently no such story to be found,” says Geissbühler.
“Most cryptocurrencies have no use”
But it’s not just the Bitcoin price that is wobbling. The entire crypto world is fluctuating – and there is a reason for this: “Most cryptocurrencies have no use or use case – so they are purely objects of speculation.”
The majority of these cryptos will disappear again. The crash in cryptocurrencies is mainly due to the fact that many speculators are pulling the ripcord due to the high losses and throwing their positions onto the market. “This creates a negative spiral that is difficult to stop.”
An economic crisis has nothing to complain about
A tech giant is currently operating in completely different spheres. Alphabet is posting figures for 2025 that are gigantic even by tech standards: The group has achieved a turnover of more than 400 billion dollars for the first time. At the same time, the business is extremely profitable – in the end, a profit of 132 billion dollars remains, which is 32 percent more than in the previous year. Remarkable: Alphabet has quadrupled its earnings in just a few years, even though the company has long been a global giant.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, owns YouTube, Gemini and Pixel, among others.
IMAGO/Zoonar
In addition to Google, the Alphabet empire also includes Gemini (AI), Google Maps, Android, YouTube, the robotaxi subsidiary Waymo and the central data centers. Around 190,000 people work for the group worldwide. Switzerland plays a key role in this. Zurich is the most important research and development location outside the USA.
Strong expansion leads to record turnover
One key to the company’s success is its enormous investments. In 2025, Alphabet invested 61 billion dollars in research and development – a quarter more than in the previous year. And the company wants to go one better: Alphabet has announced investments of up to 185 billion dollars in artificial intelligence for the current year – sums that hardly any competitor can match.
Alphabet is also expanding its operational dominance. Gemini has established itself as a direct AI extension alongside Google search and is already expected to reach 750 million people per month. YouTube is becoming increasingly strong in the entertainment and music sector and has generated over 60 billion dollars in revenue (advertising and subscriptions). Then there is Waymo: the self-driving cabs are used by over 400,000 passengers every week, so far in US cities – Europe is set to follow with a planned launch in London. At the same time, the pressure is growing: there have been repeated discussions in the USA and Europe about splitting up the company and fining it billions – so far without any noticeable effect.