Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin currently holds a 59% chance of outperforming gold by 2026 on Polymarket, emphasizing growing confidence among traders.
- Polymarket is a blockchain-driven prediction platform, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of various real-world events.
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The odds that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026 have risen to 59% on Polymarket, following the crypto’s move back above $90,000 to start the year.
Bitcoin concluded 2025 down roughly 6%, sharply underperforming gold, which surged over 65% to become the year’s standout asset, per TradingView.
While the digital asset saw a strong start, it faced extreme volatility, peaking at $126,000 in early October before a lack of fresh catalysts and uneven demand triggered a steep year-end retreat.
The rising odds on prediction markets reflect growing trader confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to deliver stronger returns than the traditional precious metal this year.
Near-term expectations are becoming more restrained among some analysts.
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments believes Bitcoin may have completed its halving-cycle bull phase and could enter a period of consolidation in 2026. The strategist thinks prices could return to the $65,000–$70,000 range, while still seeing upside in the long run.