BTC/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView
The first one sits at $78,000, a level from which BTC bounced in April this year. Back then, sentiment was quite similar to right now. The Fear and Greed Index had reached a low of 15 and open interest (OI) in the futures market showed low participation.
These two metrics are commonly interpreted as contrarian signals, meaning that when they are down big, the market tends to be close to hitting a local bottom. Shortly after bouncing off this level, BTC hit a new all-time high.
This support area must be broken somewhere during the first quarter of 2026 if the downtrend will continue toward our bearish target.
Market conditions are not necessarily supporting that kind of downside, so the price will likely bounce strongly after hitting that mark. We could expect some sideways trading after that, followed by a definite breakout to $58,000.
Keep in mind that this bearish outlook is based on historical patterns that will not necessarily repeat exactly the same. The magnitude of BTC’s losses after dropping below the 50-week EMA may be smaller compared to previous cycles.
Nonetheless, what the charts do confirm is that BTC has started a bearish cycle. Whether that takes us to $78,000, $58,000, or $36,000, that will depend on whether we get strong price drivers that accelerate the downtrend, or not.