Although the Land Registry figures track the market from three to six months ago so the performance show in the table below is somewhat out of date; what it does show is that house price rises have been rising above their long-term averages in each ‘country’ versus annualised growth since 2005.
The other interesting stat is that although things are looking good year on year, if we look to see how property prices have performed since the 2007/8 credit crunch, this shows why year on year stats aren’t the best indication of whats happening to the market. And that’s because for some time now, they are still struggling to keep up with inflation.
This is backed by this great chart from Home.co.uk, which shows that despite all the rhetoric around property price inflation and how we are due a ‘crash’, average prices haven’t managed to keep up with inflation.
Certainly, since mortgage rates started to rise rapidly after the Liz Truss government moved in – albeit on a short term let – property prices have struggled in the last few years to keep up with inflation and as you will see in the Cities index, there are still some which have yet to see property prices recover to the highs we saw up to September 2022.
And as you can see from the table, although England is doing OK versus inflation Wales and especially N.Ireland have struggled to keep up.
Local expertise for each country though is essential when looking at how the property market is performing. This is especially the case in the likes of Scotland and Wales where areas are as diverse as the English Regions.
Northern Ireland housing market
“Northern Ireland, the strongest performer, was a notable exception, with annual price growth accelerating to 13.5% more than double the pace of the next fastest outturn in Q1 and the highest recorded in the region since 2021.”
“Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest annual property price growth of any nation or region, rising by +6.6% in March, house prices here average £206,620.”
Scottish housing market
“Scotland saw a 3.9% annual rise.”
“Scotland recorded the second strongest house price growth, increasing to +4.3% last month, compared to +3.8% in February. The average house price here is now £213,750.”
Welsh housing market
“Wales was close behind at 3.6% annual rise.”
“Property prices in Wales were also up +3.7% in March, to an average £227,332.”
Regionally, there isn’t much happening year on year according to most of the indices, but the good news is that, in the main, albeit slowly, property prices are rising. And the indices explain this is due to high levels of stock versus demand and mortgage rates still being higher than their likely long term average.
Stamp duty changes are also likely to hold back demand, which may be why Rightmove is the only index showing some price falls this month. As a lead indicator of what happens to prices and sales transactions, it could suggest that this will filter through to the other indices over the next month or two.
Commentary on the regional house price performance by indices
“Yorkshire remains the regional growth leader with the mix-adjusted average asking price now an impressive 5.4% higher than a year ago, while the South East shows a paltry 0.3% growth, just ahead of the East of England at 0.4%. Notably, pricing continues to be strongest in the northern regions and weakest in London and adjacent regions. Rental yields are undeniably a key driver of regional growth disparity, directing investment away from arguably overvalued locations predominantly in the South towards the northern regions. Overall, the vital signs of the UK property sales market indicate a positive state of health, due mainly to continued demand in the North. However, vendors and agents alike understand that the current level of demand is unlikely to be sustained after the increase in stamp duty on April 1st.”
“The number of homes for sale is higher than a year ago across all areas. Supply has increased the most in southern England, as a return to price increases and rising sales has encouraged more sellers to put their homes on the market. Double council tax on second homes from April 2025 is also boosting supply in areas with a greater share of second homes such as the South West of England. Buyer demand in southern England is higher than a year ago, but it is failing to keep pace with the growth in supply. This explains why house price inflation is running at +1% or lower across London, the South East, South West and Eastern regions.”
“In England, Yorkshire and Humberside also saw strong growth, up +4.2% compared to the previous year, with properties now costing an average £215,807. London saw the slowest annual house price growth, from +1.5% in February to +1.1% in March. The capital retains the top spot for the highest average house price in the UK, at £543,370.”