- August Nonfarm Payrolls prints at low 22K, below 75K consensus.
- The July NFP was revised up by 6K to 79K.
- US Unemployment Rate rises from 4.2% to 4.3%.
- 99% odds of a rate cut at September 17 FOMC meeting pushes equity futures higher.
The US stock market is not unhappy with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which showed that August hiring fell to 22K on a net basis. Wall Street had expected 75K. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.3% as expected.
The low August figure pushed bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September to near unanimity, which is bullish for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures jumped from -0.3% to positive territory, While NASDAQ 100 futures climbed above 0.6%. S&P 500 futures rose to 0.3%.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows there is now 99% odds of a 25 bps cut at the Fed’s September 17 FOMC meeting. The odds were 96% a day earlier.
July’s 73K print was also revised up to 79K. After that print, which saw previous months’ readings revised lower by a quarter million jobs, US President Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and replaced her with the Heritage Foundation’s AJ Antoni.
June’s 14K previously revised print was again revised lower to -13K.
Dow Jones futures 5-minute chart for September 5, 2025