By Mike Murphy
A loaded container ship sits docked at the Port of Los Angeles on Friday.
U.S. stock-market futures declined Sunday, as investors grappled with the implications of Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that overturned most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were recently down about 270 points, or 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures (ES00) dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) fell 0.9%. Losses accelerated as the overnight trading session went on.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) fell almost 1% amid ongoing worries that the Trump administration will soon launch a military attack on Iran as nuclear talks have stalled. The U.S. has amassed firepower around the Persian Gulf, and reports have said Trump is considering a limited strike intended to force Iran into making a nuclear deal, while maintaining the threat of an all-out assault if Iran does not comply. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet again in Geneva on Thursday.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sank over the weekend, and was last trading below $65,000. Gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) gained Sunday, though both metals are down sharply from record highs reached in late January. Meanwhile, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY slid 0.4%.
U.S. stocks jumped Friday after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s emergency tariffs. The S&P 500 SPX gained 1.1% for the week, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq COMP surged 1.5%, in the best week for both indexes in more than a month. The Dow DJIA advanced 0.3% last week.
Read more: The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling has economists even more stressed about worsening U.S. debt
Still, much is unclear about how the situation will play out. Trump immediately announced 10% global tariffs for up to 120 days on Friday, and raised that to 15% on Saturday. That move was based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which grants the president tariff powers to deal with persistent trade deficits, and essentially buys the Trump administration time to draw up new, permanent tariffs on an individual-country or sector basis. Friday’s ruling may also trigger a process of refunding billions of dollars for tariffs that have already been paid to the U.S.
“The Supreme Court blocked Trump tarrif hammer. The White House came back with a scalpel,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a Sunday note. “Tariffs were not shelved. They were repositioned. And in markets, repositioned risk is still risk.”
On Sunday, the European Union asked the U.S. to provide “full clarity,” and said that it expects the U.S. to honor the trade deal reached last summer, regardless of the Supreme Court’s ruling.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that the U.S. will honor its trade agreements. The deals reached with the E.U. and other U.S. trading partners “were not premised” on tariffs, Greer said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.
Trump’s trade policy was going to continue “whether we won or lost” the tariff case, Greer said. “That’s why they signed these deals, even while the litigation was pending… we expect to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them.”
“We’ll have continuity,” Greer added. “The policy hasn’t changed, just the tools have changed.”
“The more important signal sits beneath the headlines,” Innes said in his Sunday note. “Deals already struck with China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea remain intact. That tells you this is not a bonfire; it is a repricing grid. The administration is not tearing up the table; it is adjusting the toll booth. That nuance matters. ”
Tariff costs and possible refunds will likely be a big topic of discussion this week as a number of major retailers, including Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX (TJX) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), report quarterly earnings.
More: Tariffs costs and refunds take the spotlight as Home Depot, TJX and other retailers report earnings this week
-Mike Murphy
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02-22-26 2104ET
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