Stocks Rise After Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs; GDP Data Disappoints

Prediction Market ETFs Could Be on the Way

FROM 11 minutes ago

Prediction market contracts are hot. Investment shops want in—and not just because they want to lure in sports bettors.

ETF issuers Roundhill Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, and GraniteShares have all recently filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch funds that, if approved, would represent bets on this year’s U.S. congressional elections, as well as the 2028 presidential election. They will do this by holding event contracts—derivatives found on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, for example—that typically have binary outcomes; the proposed exchange-traded funds are tied to whether the various elections will swing in favor of the Democratic or Republican parties.

Whether the SEC will approve the ETFs, and how long it takes to review the filings, remains an open question. If they get the nod, they could offer another way for everyday investors to engage with prediction markets—but also institutionalize them much like funds did for cryptocurrency by creating products professional investors, as well as individuals, might want to buy and sell.

It would appear that prediction markets are on a “similar journey” to crypto, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told Investopedia. “Maybe the ETFs are a crowning achievement in that journey.”

Read the full story here.

–Crystal Kim

Applovin Stock Rises on Report It’s Getting Into the Social Media Business

FROM 1 hr 7 min ago

Shares of advertising technology firm Applovin (APP) rose 4% on Friday amid reports it plans to develop its own social media platform. 

A senior Applovin executive recently spoke of the company’s ambitions on a Chinese-language podcast, according to a Bloomberg report Thursday. The company has also reportedly posted a job for someone to head up the development.

Applovin was one of several companies last year that bid to acquire the U.S. operations of shortform video platform TikTok from its Chinese parent company ByteDance. Applovin’s bid was unsuccessful. A joint venture that includes software giant Oracle (ORCL), private equity firm Silver Lake, and Emirati investment firm MGX closed on the acquisition last month. 

According to Bloomberg, Applovin’s chief product officer characterized the endeavor as the opposite of what Meta with Facebook. It pioneered the social media business by building an enormous audience before developing tools to monetize that audience. Applovin, he said, already has the ad tools. It just needs its own audience. 

Shares of Applovin have soared in recent years alongside revenue from its AI-powered ad placement platform. The stock rose more than 1,700% between early 2024 and its all-time high in late 2025. 

The stock has been pressured more recently by short seller reports and concerns about AI’s potential to disrupt of software and services industries. Those concerns have hammered stocks across the tech, finance, and industrials sectors. 

Applovin shares are down about 36% since the start of the year despite Friday’s gains. 

The Fed’s Favorite Measure Of Inflation Was Hotter Than Expected at the End of 2025

FROM 1 hr 51 min ago

After a turbulent year, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation ended 2025 higher than where it began.

Consumer prices as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 2.9% over 12 months in December, up from a 2.8% annual increase in November and reaching the highest since March 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. That was higher than the 2.8% annual inflation rate forecasters had expected according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. “Core” prices excluding the volatile food and energy categories rose 3% over 12 months, the highest annual increase since February and in line with expectations.

The uptick of core prices is especially noteworthy because it’s the benchmark used by officials at the Federal Reserve to determine if inflation is running at the Fed’s target of a 2% annual rate. That hasn’t been the case since 2021, when the pandemic disrupted supply chains and caused a surge of price hikes.

By the start of 2025 inflation was on the downswing, but began rising again in April after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Merchants have passed along tariffs to customers, pushing up prices for many products. However, overall inflation hasn’t risen severely partly because housing costs have leveled off.

“This will trigger more concern inside the Fed that inflation needs a closer look again,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.

The report was supposed to be released in January but was delayed by the government shutdown in October and November.

The PCE numbers came on the same day the government released fourth-quarter GDP data that showed economic growth was weaker than anticipated in the fourth quarter.

–Diccon Hyatt

These Experts Think Netflix Will Be Fine Even If It Doesn’t Get to Buy Warner Bros.

FROM 2 hr 42 min ago

If Netflix can’t land WBD, it’s NBD.

That notion—that streaming-video giant Netflix (NFLX) will be just fine if its planned multibillion-dollar merger with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) doesn’t go through—is the opinion of analysts at Wedbush, who on Friday reiterated their bullish rating and $115 price target on Netflix shares. That target, which is nearly 50% above Netflix’s current stock price, is around the Street average, according to Visible Alpha.

Wedbush’s report landed at the close of a week in which the deal, announced in December, embarked down the latest leg of its winding road. Warner Bros. reopened talks with alternative (and at times hostile) suitor Paramount Skydance (PSKY), injecting fresh uncertainty, and the possibility of another round of competing bids, into the process.

Meanwhile, investors continue to grapple with the question of whether Netflix’s bid would ultimately face insurmountable regulatory hurdles.

But even if it doesn’t, Wedbush wrote, Netflix “does not need this deal. … Its business is entirely healthy on its own, with a burgeoning global advertising business.”

Netflix last month reported financial results that included nearly 18% year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, as well as widening operating margins.

The company told investors to expect 15% sales growth in the current quarter. Shares of Netflix, down more than 20% over the past 12 months, were recently up more than 1%. Warner Bros. shares were edging higher Friday afternoon, while Paramount’s were down about 1%.

–David Marino-Nachison

Corning Stock Rides AI Enthusiasm to Another Record High

FROM 3 hr 37 min ago

Shares of glass maker Corning (GLW) soared to a record high on Friday, as the supplier of a key component in computer networking equipment continued to ride a wave of AI enthusiasm. 

Shares of Corning rose above $140 for the first time ever on Friday. Shares were recently up 7%, bringing their year-to-date return to nearly 60%.

The glass maker’s stock has soared in the past year amid booming demand for its fiber-optic cables from AI data centers. The company last month announced a $6 billion deal with Meta to supply the social media giant with cables for its network of data centers. Meta (META) and the other hyperscalers—Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle (ORCL)—are expected to spend more than $600 billion on infrastructure this year, with much of it going toward equipment to fill AI-enabling data centers. 

Corning’s stock this year has finally overtaken its previous record high set back in 2000 during a fiber optic boom driven by the buildout of internet infrastructure. The stock lost nearly all of its value when the Dotcom Bubble burst, falling from a high of $113 in September 2000 to trade below $2 in 2002.

Tariff Exposed Stocks Jump on Supreme Court Ruling

FROM 4 hr 26 min ago

Stocks in industries with heavy exposure to tariffs rose on Friday after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s signature economic policy. 

Shares of footwear makers Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Birkenstock (BIRK), and Crocs (CROX) were up more than 2% Friday after jumping following the Supreme Court’s ruling. Footwear makers have been especially hard hit by Trump’s tariffs due to the concentration of the industry’s manufacturing operations in China and neighboring countries, like Vietnam, that were subjected to some of the steepest tariffs. 

Furniture companies were also on the rise Friday. Shares of Wayfair (W) and Floor & Decor (FND) were up more than 4% in recent trading. Williams Sonoma (WSM) stock rose nearly 2%. 

Shares of international online marketplaces Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY), and Etsy (ETSY) were up about 2.5%, 3.5%, and 7%, respectively.

Many of the above stocks pared their early gains as uncertainty about the Trump administration’s next moves set in. Trump has vowed to reimpose tariffs under different presidential authorities than those the Justices just determined he invoked illegally.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Most of Trump’s Tariffs

FROM 5 hr 20 min ago

President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy was illegal.

That’s according to the Supreme Court, which ruled Friday against the sweeping tariffs Trump imposed on most U.S. trading partners in 2025 using his emergency powers. In a 6-3 ruling, the high court determined Trump exceeded his authority as president when he imposed the import taxes.

The ruling overturns all of the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. That represents about 75% of all the tariffs Trump imposed last year, according to an analysis by UBS, including the “reciprocal” tariffs he placed on imports from most countries in the world.

The ruling leaves in place tariffs on specific items such as automobiles and steel, which were imposed under a different authority, section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

“The President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime,” the ruling said. “It instead relies exclusively on IEEPA to defend the challenged tariffs.”

The court sided with Learning Resources Inc., which manufactures educational materials, and sued the administration last year arguing that IEEPA does not give Trump the authority to impose tariffs at will.

The ruling once again throws U.S. trade policy into uncertainty. Ahead of the ruling, the Trump administration vowed to re-impose tariffs under different legal justifications if the court ruled against tariffs. The administration would “start the next day” to reestablish tariffs, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told the New York Times last month.

It was unclear how soon Trump would impose new tariffs, or whether they would be as high as the old ones.

–Diccon Hyatt

Why One Expert Thinks Palantir’s Slumping Stock Is an Opportunity for Investors

FROM 5 hr 55 min ago

Palantir shares have slumped lately. Does that make them a deal?

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) were down about 2% in early Friday trading. That leaves them down about 36% from their November highs amid a broader pullback in software stocks and some worries Palantir’s valuation may have eclipsed its fundamentals. The stock popped earlier this month after turning in Street-beating earnings, but that didn’t stop the slide.

But that pullback may be overdone, analysts at Mizuho suggested in a note to clients, saying now could be a good time to pick up Palantir shares.

Mizuho on Wednesday upgraded Palantir’s stock to “outperform” from a neutral rating, setting a $195 price target that is 44% above Wednesday’s close.

The analysts pointed to strong AI demand trends and growth in the company’s commercial business. Palantir “is in a category of one, delivering total revenue growth, acceleration, and margin expansion at scale that is unlike anything else in software,” they wrote.

Of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, only half consider the stock a “buy,” while half hold neutral ratings. (Michael Burry, meanwhile, has recently come out as a Palantir bear.) But the Street’s mean target is higher than Mizuho’s: The average just above $207 would suggest a return to the stock’s November high.

–Kara Greenberg

U.S. Economy Grew Far Slower Than Expected Last Quarter

FROM 6 hr 51 min ago

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter. It was also well below economists’ expectations of a 2.4% increase.

Friday’s figures are an advance estimate that the bureau will revise twice as new data comes in. Final numbers will be released in April.

Before Friday’s release, when economists were still predicting a two percentage point slowdown, President Donald Trump took to social media to blame slower GDP growth on his political opponents.

“The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP,” he wrote.

Economists say the historically long 43-day shutdown in October and November hindered economic growth. Deutsche Bank researchers estimate that had the shutdown not happened, the economy would have grown 70 basis points more in the fourth quarter.

–Taylor Tompkins

Stock Futures Slip Ahead of Key Economic Reports

FROM 7 hr 24 min ago

Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.1% in recent trading.

S&P 500 futures were also off 0.1%.

Nasdaq 100 contracts dipped a similar amount.