Stock market weekly wrap: Sensex, Nifty50 remained range-bound; What to expect from Indian stock market next week?

Indian stock market: Over the past week, the Indian stock market remained confined within a narrow range, culminating in a weekly loss. This downturn was primarily driven by escalating global trade tensions and substantial foreign capital outflows, which have dampened prospects for a sustained market recovery.

On Thursday, the 30-share BSE Sensex reversed its early gains, closing down by 200.85 points (0.27 per cent) at 73,828.91, marking its fifth consecutive session of losses due to selling in realty, IT, and auto sectors. Similarly, the NSE Nifty declined by 73.30 points (0.33 per cent) to settle at 22,397.20.

“Markets closed marginally lower last week, reflecting a consolidative tone amid mixed global cues. The benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, remained range-bound throughout before settling with losses of over half a percent at 22,397.2 and 73,828.91, respectively,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd in a note.

On the sectoral front, most indices ended in the red, with IT, auto, and realty among the biggest losers. Financials and pharma, however, managed to hold their ground. Broader markets also bore the brunt of selling pressure, with midcap and smallcap indices losing between 2.15 per cent and 4 per cent.

Key market drivers for next week

All eyes will be on U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review on March 19. Despite recent favorable inflation data, the likelihood of an interest rate cut is uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions. The Fed’s commentary will be pivotal in guiding market expectations.

Domestically, market participants are closely monitoring Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) activity. After a brief slowdown, selling pressure from foreign investors has intensified, with FIIs withdrawing over ₹1.1 lakh crore from Indian equities in 2025, contributing to a 4% decline in the Nifty index year-to-date. Any improvement in FII inflows could provide much-needed relief to the markets.

Technical Outlook for Nifty next week

According to Mishra, Nifty remains in a consolidation phase, trading within a tight range of 22,250 to 22,650.

“A decisive breakout could drive the index towards 23,100 or higher, while a breakdown may lead to a retest of 21,800,” he added.

Speaking on Bank Nifty outlook, Mishra said, “The banking sector has shown resilience, but the Bank Nifty needs a strong close above its 20-day exponential moving average at 48,600 to regain strength and test the 50,000 mark. On the downside, a breach of 47,500 could trigger a sharp correction.”

What should be your trading strategy for next week?

Market experts recommend investors to stick to focus on high-quality companies with attractive valuations for medium- to long-term investments.

“We continue to remain cautiously optimistic on market due to the recent recovery as well as valuation easing. Investors are recommended to stick to quality businesses with supportive valuations for medium to long term investment horizon,” said SBI Securities in a report.

Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking further advised investors to focus on option strategies in index until a clear breakout emerges amid ongoing market consolidation.

“Given the ongoing market consolidation, traders are advised to focus on option strategies in index until a clear breakout emerges. At the same time, stock-specific approach remains prudent, with a preference for financials, energy, and metals on the long side, while IT and auto sectors may continue to underperform.

Additionally, caution is warranted in broader markets, as heightened volatility could lead to further underperformance. Investors are advised to avoid aggressive positioning in mid and small-cap stocks,” he said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.