Much also depends on what happens to Russian oil flows.
Crude oil futures traded lower on Monday morning after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced an increase in production for September.
At 9.54 am on Monday, October Brent oil futures were at $69.41, down by 0.37 per cent, and September crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $67.14, down by 0.28 per cent. August crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,869 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹5,887, down by 0.31 per cent, and September futures were trading at ₹5,784 against the previous close of ₹5,801, down by 0.29 per cent.
In a media statement on Sunday, OPEC+ said that in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on December 5, 2024, to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from April 1, 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required production level.
“The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it said.
In their Commodities Feed for Monday, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said the market had largely expected the OPEC+ supply hike, one that marks the end of the group returning the full 2.2 million barrels per day of additional voluntary cuts. “We believe the group is finished with its supply hikes, as we move out of the stronger summer demand period and inventories start to rise,” they said.
However, much also depends on what happens to Russian oil flows. The US administration threatens penalties on India for purchasing Russian energy. This puts in the region of 1.7 million barrels per day of supply at risk if Indian refiners stop buying Russian oil. “If there are no other willing buyers for this oil, it would erase the expected surplus through the fourth quarter and 2026. It would also possibly provide OPEC+ the opportunity to start unwinding the next tranche of supply cuts totalling 1.66 million barrels per day,” they said.
Mentioning that that the US has threatened penalties on India, they said less has been said about the flow of Russian oil to China. If the US successfully targets these flows as well, it will leave the market considerably tighter and require OPEC+ to tap even deeper into its spare production capacity, they added.
August menthaoil futures were trading at ₹945.30 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹926, up by 2.08 per cent.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), August guargum contracts were trading at ₹9,980 in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹9,820, up by 1.63 per cent.
August turmeric (farmer polished) futures were trading at ₹13,238 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹13,118, up by 0.91 per cent.
More Like This
Published on August 4, 2025