Stock market today: Nasdaq surges 2%, Dow and S&P 500 gain as chip stocks rally, oil prices fall

Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:

Tesla (TSLA) stock is jumping to start the week, just as the company announced an update for its upcoming halo vehicle — the Roadster.

Over the weekend, Tesla announced on its website that reservations are now open for the 2nd-generation Roadster, which is slated to be revealed on Oct. 1. Tesla is asking prospective buyers to put down a $5,000 deposit, followed by a $45,000 wire transfer due within 10 days of the initial deposit.

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Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk says the credit picture underpinning hundreds of billions of AI data center investments comes down to a single widely held assumption on Wall Street.

It’s the expectation that hyperscalers, including Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and others, can grow their collective operating cash flow from $600 billion in 2025 to $2 trillion by 2030.

“If this doesn’t happen, then the risk is that the AI trade weakens, with credit spreads widening, capex plans getting cut and ultimately US GDP growth slowing,” Sløk wrote in a note on Monday. (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)

Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban past the end of September, Bloomberg News reported Monday, a sign of more pressure to come just as US diesel prices hit fresh all-time highs.

The news comes after an attack by the Ukrainian military over the weekend on a major Russian oil refinery outside Moscow, igniting a new wave of fears over Russia’s ability to keep producing diesel. Prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the country was responsible for roughly 10% of global diesel exports.

That the ban will be extended is likely to put even more pressure on prices in the US, which on Monday climbed to an all-time high of over $6.50, just over a month out from critical midterm elections for the White House.

Diesel is often called the workhorse of the global economy, and the price of the oil distillate is critical to any business that moves physical goods. As the average price of diesel in the US has raced upward from $3.69 per gallon a year ago to $6.51 today, that runup has pressured margins across market sectors.

Chip stocks were back in the driver’s seat on Monday as the PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) surged more than 3%.

An upcoming state dinner between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with numerous AI titans expected to be in attendance, fueled optimism about the AI trade.

Chipmaker AMD soared to an all-time high above $610 a share, giving it a $1 trillion market cap during the trading session.

Shares of central processing unit designer Arm Holdings (ARM) and chipmaker Intel both rose 10% as social media giant Meta’s (META) new AI agent MUSE sparked a broader rally among server CPU suppliers.

The chip sector has seen additional tailwinds, including a report last week that SK Hynix (SKHY) is exploring a deal with Intel (INTC).

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Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks are surging on Monday as investors appear to have faded last week’s failed Senate vote for the industry’s landmark bill.

The total crypto market has added roughly $330 billion in value since the Clarity Act failed to advance in Congress last Tuesday, per CoinMarketCap.

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:

The lack of clarity on the regulatory framework for crypto hasn’t shaken the bitcoin bulls. In fact, it appears to have brought them back to the trade.

Bitcoin broke above $86,000 for the first time in eight months early on Monday. Some of the biggest premarket movers in the crypto patch include Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Robinhood (HOOD).

Markets — for now — are moving beyond the Clarity Act debacle.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) is also lifting spirits for bitcoin this week.

Strategy bought 950 bitcoin and repurchased about 1.77 million of its preferred stock (STRC) last week, it said in a Monday 8-K filing. The bitcoin juggernaut also used another $57.4 million to fund dividends on preferred stock and outstanding interest payments.

Along with others in the crypto world, Saylor has also weighed in on the Clarity Act, arguing that the crypto industry could even be better off without the legislation in its latest form.

Stocks rose at the open on Monday as oil prices fell, Treasury yields eased, and investors weighed inflation along with the AI buildout and safety concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose slightly, 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 1%.

Chip stocks rallied with the PHLX Semiconductor index (^SOX) climbing more than 2% on Monday morning to its highest price since Sept. 9. 

Some of the AI industry’s most influential leaders will attend a White House dinner on Thursday as part of this week’s crucial meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

Futures on both international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) and US benchmark WTI (CL=F) eased on Monday. They each remain below $100 per barrel.

With eight separate speeches planned through Friday, investors will get a lot more input on how the Fed is thinking about the economy. The Fed raised rates last week and left further increases on the table, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have also tightened.

US bond yields consequently remain key. Yields fell Monday with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), remaining just below 5%.

Investors are also pushing bitcoin (BTC) prices higher. The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 6% over the last 24 hours to trade above $85,000 per coin.