Stock Market Today LIVE: The key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market staged a bounce-back, following a rebound in Asian markets after further easing in crude oil prices and a crash in the US bond yields. The Bank Nifty index is up over 800 points, whereas the Nifty 50 and Sensex are up by around 0.35% and 0.60%, respectively.
The US bond market is witnessing a sharp sell-off today. The US 10-year bond yield has extended its early-morning losses to 5.214, downaround 1%. The US 30-year bond yield is also down by 0.90% to 5.544.
Asian stocks advanced for the first time in three sessions as oil prices fell on signs of increased supply from the Middle East, while bonds remained in focus ahead of the crucial US inflation reading.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4% with stocks in Japan and South Korea gaining. The moves came after gains for a key gauge of US semiconductor shares, while President Donald Trump rejected regulations on artificial intelligence.
Crude oil price today
The moderation in oil prices, however, comes against a backdrop of continued uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict and the outlook for regional energy supplies. Signs of a recovery in crude production and improving supply flows have helped push prices lower, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid, leaving energy markets vulnerable to renewed volatility should tensions escalate or negotiations falter.
FII data
Foreign investor flows remain a significant headwind. Persistent foreign selling, alongside elevated US Treasury yields, could continue to limit the durability of any recovery in domestic equities.
The external backdrop is nevertheless somewhat more supportive this morning, with Asian equities trading higher and technology stocks leading gains. The stronger regional tone could provide an initial boost to risk appetite, although domestic markets are likely to remain sensitive to movements in crude oil, global yields and foreign flows.
Brokerages see weak October | Here’s why
India’s monthly equity derivatives expiry on Tuesday signalled a risk-off turn, marked by broad unwinding of bullish positions, a fresh buildup of shorts and heavier foreign investor selling as markets grapple with a global bond rout, brokerages said.
The benchmark Nifty 50 fell 6.7% during the September derivative series, making it the worst performer among Asian markets. The Bank Nifty declined 5.7%, contributing the most to losses in the benchmark.
The rollover data point to a cautious market heading into October. Bearish bets were not merely built during September’s selloff, but also largely carried into the new series, according to three brokerages.
IIFL Capital sees scope for a bounce towards 23,300 as the Nifty approaches the 22,500 level. However, it cautioned that a sustained break below 22,400 could open the door to more losses.
Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research sees the benchmark between support at 22,350 and resistance at 23,400, despite favourable seasonal trends.
The September derivative series saw broad-based selling and heavy bearish bets by overseas investors, analysts at Ambit Capital said, as nearly half of stocks for which futures and options are available ended with long positions unwound and more than 40% saw a buildup of shorts.
With Nifty futures open interest steady, Bank Nifty rollovers above average and foreign investors increasing index-futures shorts, any near-term rebound is likely to face selling pressure, according to IIFL, Nuvama and Ambit. The only caveat analysts pointed to is that global sentiment may improve.