Stock Market Today (LIVE): Microsoft Loses OpenAI Exclusivity; Spotify Races Into Fitness With Peloton

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Microsoft Loses OpenAI Exclusivity

12:10 pm — SPOT -1.4%, PTON +2.7%

Microsoft (MSFT 0.23%) shares slipped Monday after announcing a major restructuring of its partnership with OpenAI. The amended agreement eliminates Microsoft’s exclusive access to OpenAI’s models and intellectual property, effectively allowing the startup to license its technology to rivals like Amazon (AMZN 0.46%) Web Services. While Azure remains OpenAI’s primary cloud provider and retains first-look rights to new products, the previous “AGI clause” is gone. Financially, Microsoft will stop paying revenue shares to OpenAI, though the startup must continue payments to Microsoft through 2030. This pivot suggests a strategic decoupling as Microsoft prepares for its Wednesday earnings report amid intensifying cloud competition.

• Cash Flow Reversal: The cessation of revenue-share payments to OpenAI may bolster Microsoft’s margins in the short term as it faces ballooning capital expenditures for AI infrastructure.
• Competitive Leveling: By opening its doors to other cloud providers, OpenAI is now free to pursue a broader enterprise strategy, potentially turning Microsoft’s once-exclusive advantage into a commodity service available to the highest bidder.

Today’s Change

(-0.23%) $-0.98

Current Price

$423.64

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$3.2T

Day’s Range

$417.10 – $424.68

52wk Range

$356.28 – $555.45

Volume

822K

Avg Vol

38M

Gross Margin

68.59%

Dividend Yield

0.82%

Qualcomm Jumps 7% on OpenAI Chip Rumor

12:25 pm — QCOM +0.4%

Qualcomm (QCOM +0.19%) shares briefly surged by 7% Monday following reports of a strategic partnership with OpenAI to develop custom smartphone processing chips. Working alongside MediaTek and manufacturer Luxshare, Qualcomm aims to provide the hardware foundation for OpenAI’s ambitious “AI agent” mobile device, slated for mass production in 2028. Analysts suggest that controlling the silicon and operating system is essential for real-time AI inference, allowing OpenAI to capture a user’s full state. For Qualcomm, this deal represents a critical diversification beyond standard Snapdragon modems as the mobile industry pivots toward hardware designed specifically for autonomous digital agents.

• Ecosystem Evolution: OpenAI may bypass traditional app stores by bundling hardware with subscriptions, creating a closed loop that challenges the current dominance of Apple (AAPL 1.70%) and Google (GOOG +2.17%).
• Silicon Synergy: The project builds on OpenAI’s $6.4 billion acquisition of Jony Ive’s startup, io, merging elite industrial design with Qualcomm’s wireless expertise to produce a device rumored to feel less like a phone and more like a personal digital sanctuary.

Spotify Plunges Into Global Fitness

11:15 am — SPOT -1.4%, PTON +2.7%

Spotify (SPOT 1.79%) is broadening its lifestyle footprint through a global partnership with Peloton Interactive (PTON +3.09%), launching a fitness hub containing over 1,400 classes. Available to Premium subscribers, the integration includes yoga, meditation, and strength training, leveraging Spotify’s 150 million existing workout playlists to drive deeper platform engagement. For Peloton, this move accelerates CEO Peter Stern’s strategy to transform the company from a hardware-dependent manufacturer into a scalable content powerhouse. By bypassing the need for proprietary equipment, Peloton gains immediate exposure to hundreds of millions of potential users, while Spotify unlocks new monetization avenues beyond its maturing music and podcast segments.

• Monetization Muscles: Spotify is courting independent creators like Yoga With Kassandra to build a diversified wellness ecosystem that mirrors its successful podcast partner program.
• Global Footprint Expansion: The deal allows Peloton to bypass international logistics hurdles, using Spotify’s infrastructure to scale instruction across major markets in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Top of the Morning

10:10 am — GOOG -1.5%, AMZN -0.9%, META -0.4%, MSFT -1.0% 

By Nick Sciple
Team Rule Breakers

If you’ve been waiting for earnings season to get interesting, this is your week.

Five of the Magnificent Seven report between Wednesday and Thursday. The whole group is roughly a third of the S&P 500 by market cap, so the next 72 hours will tell us a lot about whether the bull market has the earnings underneath it to keep going.

The lineup: Alphabet (GOOG +2.17%), Amazon (AMZN 0.46%), Meta (META +0.10%), and Microsoft (MSFT 0.23%) all report after the bell Wednesday. Apple follows Thursday. These are the first full quarterly results from most of Big Tech since the war in Iran started rattling global markets in late February, and the question everybody’s asking is the same one it’s been all year. Is the AI spending boom still justified?

The honest answer is that the companies aren’t even aligned on the strategy.

9:45 am — REAX -23.1%, RMAX +22.6%

By Jim Gillies

It’s a Merger Monday, this one with a bit of a personal connection. First, the details:

The Real Brokerage (REAX 27.43%), a “leading technology-powered real estate brokerage,” announced this morning that they are acquiring real estate brokerage franchisor RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX +21.87%) in a cash and stock offering. The price being paid is … modestly confusing. RE/MAX shareholders will have the right to receive either 5.15 shares of Real or $13.80 in cash for every RE/MAX share held. RE/MAX closed just a penny shy of $8 on Friday, so this would seem, superficially at least, to be about a 72.5% premium; good deal.

Opening Bell

9:35 am

The S&P 500 dipped Monday as stalled diplomacy in the Middle East sent Brent crude futures above $107 per barrel. President Trump scrapped a high-level envoy trip to Pakistan, insisting future negotiations occur by phone, while Tehran claimed no meetings are currently scheduled. Despite the geopolitical friction, the Nasdaq enters a high-stakes week with 15% month-to-date gains as five “Magnificent Seven” tech giants prepare to report. Investors are also bracing for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, which may be the final session for Chair Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh assumes leadership in May following the resolution of a Department of Justice probe.

OpenAI Taps Qualcomm for AI Agent Phone

8:15am — QCOM up 12.01% in pre-market trading

The AI arms race is moving into the palm of your hand, as reports from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo indicate OpenAI is collaborating with Qualcomm (QCOM +0.19%) and MediaTek to develop custom smartphone processors. Shares of Qualcomm surged on the news, which positions the chipmaker at the heart of OpenAI’s “AI agent phone”–a device designed to replace traditional apps with task-driven automation. With mass production slated for 2028, the project utilizes Luxshare as its exclusive manufacturing partner, aiming to seize a high-end smartphone market that ships up to 400 million units annually. By controlling both the hardware and its leading AI models, OpenAI hopes to redefine mobile interfaces, shifting computations between on-device small models and its massive cloud infrastructure.

• Vertical Integration: Analyst Kuo notes that OpenAI’s goal is total control over the operating system and hardware, allowing the device to understand real-time user context better than existing platforms from Apple (AAPL 1.70%) or Alphabet (GOOG +2.17%).
• The Subscription Pivot: Beyond hardware sales, the tech giant reportedly plans to bundle its premium AI subscriptions with the device, creating a closed-loop ecosystem for developers building “agent-first” software.

Today’s Change

(0.19%) $0.28

Current Price

$149.13

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$159B

Day’s Range

$147.06 – $160.94

52wk Range

$121.99 – $205.95

Volume

1.3M

Avg Vol

12M

Gross Margin

55.10%

Dividend Yield

2.39%

Meta Signs Deal to Beam Solar Power From Orbit

8:00 am — META unchanged in pre-market trading

Meta (META +0.10%) is looking to the heavens to solve its terrestrial energy crunch, signing a landmark deal with start-up Overview Energy to beam solar power from orbit. The agreement grants the social media giant early access to 1 gigawatt of capacity–roughly the output of a nuclear reactor–to fuel its massive AI infrastructure. Overview plans to launch a demonstration in 2028, with commercial delivery by 2030 using “invisible” beams to power ground facilities 24/7. This orbital pivot comes as Meta scales its “Hyperion” project in Louisiana, a rural data center campus that President Donald Trump noted will cost $50 billion and rival the footprint of Manhattan.

• Nuclear-Grade Ambition: Beyond the stars, Meta is aggressively diversifying its grid, partnering with Vistra (VST +1.08%) and small modular reactor developer Oklo (OKLO +2.04%) to secure carbon-free baseload power.
• Financing the Future: To fund the $50 billion Hyperion build-out, Meta has reportedly tapped PIMCO and Blue Owl Capital for a $29 billion financing package, highlighting the immense capital required to maintain the AI arms race.

Today’s Change

(0.10%) $0.65

Current Price

$675.67

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.7T

Day’s Range

$671.00 – $682.47

52wk Range

$520.26 – $796.25

Volume

553K

Avg Vol

16M

Gross Margin

82.00%

Dividend Yield

0.31%

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30am

Breakfast News on Mondays always looks to preview what’s coming up. This week, the continuation of Magnificent 7 first-quarter earnings season makes the headlines. Amazon (AMZN 0.46%) – in fifth place in April’s Stock Advisor rankings – is one of four reporting Wednesday. As Senior Vice President of the Rule Breakers franchise Brian Richards noted this month, Amazon is acquiring Globalstar (GSAT 0.26%), in “a move aimed squarely at competing with Starlink’s 10,000+ active satellites.”

• Ramping up AI competition on all fronts: Alphabet (GOOG +2.17%) is also due to post a Q1 update Wednesday, after last week revealing plans to invest up to $40 billion in AI start-up Anthropic. Combined with its new AI tensor processing units revealed last week, Alphabet is challenging Nvidia‘s (NVDA +2.23%) dominance too.
• The rest of the best: Meta (META +0.10%) also reports the same day, as does Microsoft (MSFT 0.23%) – currently a defendant in Elon Musk’s legal case against OpenAI, which opens today in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Apple (AAPL 1.70%) concludes the Mag7 week Thursday, after having named John Ternus as new CEO to replace Tim Cook on Sept, 1.

Meta Loses Manus to China’s AI Crackdown

6:00 am — META -0.33% in pre-market trading

Meta (META +0.10%) faces a significant hurdle in its autonomous AI roadmap after China’s National Development and Reform Commission ordered the tech giant to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of Singapore-based start-up Manus. Beijing cited national security and illegal tech transfer concerns, effectively prohibiting foreign investment in the “agentic AI” leader, which was founded in Wuhan before relocating to Singapore. The intervention underscores a narrowing path for “Singapore-washing”–where Chinese start-ups move offshore to dodge geopolitical scrutiny–and leaves Meta searching for alternatives to Manus’s highly touted autonomous agents, which had reportedly reached $100 million in annual recurring revenue before the deal.

• Tech Drain Crackdown: The block follows reports that Chinese authorities restricted Manus’s co-founders from leaving the country, highlighting Beijing’s aggressive new stance against the hollowing out of its domestic AI talent pool.
• Autonomous Ambitions Stalled: Manus’s tech is central to Meta’s goal of moving beyond chatbots to AI “agents” that execute complex tasks; without it, Meta may fall behind in a race currently led by Microsoft (MSFT 0.23%) and Alphabet (GOOG +2.17%).

Organon Agrees to $11.75B Sun Pharma Takeover

5:45 am — OGN +14.74% in pre-market trading

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Organon (OGN +17.06%) in an all-cash deal valued at $11.75 billion, including debt. The $14-per-share offer represents a 24% premium over Organon’s Friday close and aims to transform Sun Pharma into a global top-10 player in both women’s health and biosimilars. Spun off from Merck (MRK 0.26%) in 2021, Organon brings a massive portfolio spanning 140 countries, which Sun Pharma expects will push combined annual revenues to approximately $12.4 billion. While the deal significantly increases Sun Pharma’s exposure to developed markets, the firm must now manage a pro forma net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3x while integrating a sprawling global manufacturing footprint.

• Biosimilar Breakthrough: The acquisition serves as a strategic entry point for Sun Pharma into the high-growth biosimilars market, targeting a segment currently seeing increased demand as major biological patents expire.
• Leverage and Scale: Sun Pharma will fund the $11.75 billion enterprise value through cash and bank financing, betting that Organon’s $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA will provide the cash flow necessary for rapid deleveraging.

Today’s Change

(17.06%) $1.92

Current Price

$13.18

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$2.9B

Day’s Range

$13.15 – $13.24

52wk Range

$5.69 – $13.24

Volume

95M

Avg Vol

5.8M

Gross Margin

53.59%

Dividend Yield

0.71%

Bold Prediction: The First to a $10 Trillion Market Cap

5:00 am

At a recent Motley Fool One member event, Fool analyst Matt Argersinger shared a bold prediction for the next decade amid laughter and wows from the crowd. Agree or disagree with Matt’s take? Let us know in the comments!

By Matt Argersinger
Team Rule Breakers

About 10 years ago, at one of these events, I remember being on a panel, and I think Tim Hanson was on the panel as well. And the question was: What’s going to be the first U.S. company to hit a $1 trillion market capitalization?

Apple (AAPL 1.70%) was definitely the leader in the clubhouse. I went with Amazon (AMZN 0.46%)…

I was wrong. A few years later, Apple hit $1 trillion. And I said, you know what, I think Amazon is going to be the first to hit $2 trillion.

But nope. Apple did that as well. [laughter] Apple also hit the $3 trillion mark. And then Nvidia (NVDA +2.23%) hit the $4 trillion mark, and I think it hit $5 trillion last October.

So I’m here with a new prediction. [laughter]

Amazon is going to be the first to $10 trillion market capitalization. And I think it gets there within 10 years. But even if I’m wrong, Amazon will get there eventually. So, I feel good about making this call no matter what.

Before the Opening Bell

4:00am

Stock futures stalled Monday morning as investors weighed a breakthrough report from Axios that Tehran has proposed a two-stage plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the naval blockade. The offer, delivered via Pakistani mediators, seeks to prioritize maritime de-escalation while postponing nuclear negotiations–a move that would test President Trump’s “no leverage” stance on uranium enrichment. Markets are entering a pivotal “Magnificent Seven” earnings week, with Microsoft (MSFT 0.23%), Alphabet (GOOG +2.17%), Meta (META +0.10%), and Amazon (AMZN 0.46%) all set to report on April 29. These results will serve as a critical gauge of whether AI infrastructure returns can sustain the S&P 500’s recent climb to 7,137, especially as the Federal Reserve prepares for its penultimate meeting under Chair Jerome Powell before the transition to Kevin Warsh.

• The Nuclear Standoff: While the proposal offers immediate relief to global energy supply, the U.S. continues to demand a 10-year suspension of uranium enrichment, a sticking point that crashed previous weekend negotiations in Islamabad.
• Tech Capex Under the Lens: Hyperscalers are projected to spend $645 billion on AI in 2026; Wednesday’s deluge of reports will determine if Apple (AAPL 1.70%) and its peers can translate massive infrastructure investments into durable margin growth.