U.S. stock futures were advancing on Monday following Friday’s negative moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of potential consequences if the Supreme Court rules against the administration, despite expressing confidence over the Donald Trump Administration’s appeal to the higher court.
“We would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs,” a situation Bessent described as “terrible for the Treasury”.
Bessent defended Trump’s tariff policy despite possible setbacks, arguing that tariffs do not act as a tax on Americans and highlighting other signs of economic strength, pointing to the second quarter GDP growth and the recent stock market performance.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.09% and the two-year bond was at 3.50%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 100% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.16% |
| S&P 500 | 0.20% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.31% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.10% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.19% at $648.45, while the QQQ advanced 0.34% to $578.00, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From Last Session
Energy, financial, and industrials stocks recorded the biggest losses on Friday as most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a negative note. However, real estate and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher.
U.S. stocks settled lower following a disappointing jobs report.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by a meager 22,000 in August, after July’s weak 79,000 and a June revision showing a 13,000 job loss — the worst since 2020. The three-month hiring pace has collapsed to 29,000, locking in expectations for Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December.
ABM Industries Inc. ABM reported mixed fiscal third-quarter 2025 results. Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc. LULU dipped more than 18% after the company lowered FY25 guidance and received multiple analyst downgrades. Shares of Guidewire Software Inc. GWRE jumped 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results above analyst estimates.
The Dow Jones index ended 220 points or 0.48% lower at 45,400.86, whereas the S&P 500 index fell 0.32% to 6,481.50. Nasdaq Composite declined 0.034% to 21,700.39, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.48% to end at 2,391.05.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.034% | 21,700.39 |
| S&P 500 | -0.32% | 6,481.50 |
| Dow Jones | -0.48% | 45,400.86 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.48% | 2,391.05 |
Insights From Analysts
According to Ed Yardeni and William Pesek from Yardemi Research, the upcoming week’s inflation data is the final hurdle for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. While they anticipate a slowdown in the Producer Price Index (PPI), they caution that both the PPI and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could show persistent underlying price pressures.
Following a weaker-than-expected employment report, Yardeni and Pesek state that the market’s hope for a “liquidity jolt” from a Fed rate cut hinges on “reasonably tame figures for August’s PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu).” However, they immediately warn that “tame figures aren’t a given.”
- Producer Price Index (PPI): The August PPI, scheduled for Wednesday, is “expected to be up 0.3% month on month following July’s 0.9% jump.” Yardeni and Pesek suggest that goods inflation likely increased because “the costs of imported materials and parts have been boosted by tariffs.”
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): They believe Thursday’s CPI report “may show that underlying inflation pressures are enough to keep the pace of Fed easing moves up for active debate.” Citing the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model, they note expectations for year-over-year increases of 2.84% for headline CPI and 3.05% for core CPI.
Before the inflation reports, another significant event is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision for employment data on Tuesday. Yardeni and Pesek expect this revision to show that job growth between April 2024 and March 2025 was overstated by -450,000 to -750,000.
Such a revision would imply stronger productivity and “confirm widespread expectations of a Fed rate cut on September 17.” This could also cause the 10-year Treasury bond yield to fall below 4.00%, but they add a crucial caveat: “not if the PPI and CPI inflation rates run hotter than expected later this week.”
Yardeni and Pesek also point to other data releases that will inform the Fed’s outlook:
- Initial Jobless Claims: They expect claims to remain low, hovering around 231,000, indicating that “the rate of layoffs remains low.”
- NFIB Survey: The small business survey from the National Federation of Independent Business is seen as increasingly important. Yardeni and Pesek highlight “conflicting signals” in the July report, where both the optimism and uncertainty indexes rose. This, they argue, shows “why the trajectory of the Fed’s rate moves isn’t as straightforward as markets believe.”
Meanwhile, Mohamed El-Erian said in a Substack post that the “main interest” this week would be in U.S. CPI inflation, especially after last week’s weak job report and ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
“The consensus forecast anticipates somewhat greater tariff pass-through, maintaining the monthly core rate at 0.3%. PPI inflation data will be released later in the week,” he said.
Erian added that “While on U.S. data, there will be more than usual interest in the periodic BLS payroll revisions. This one covers the data from last March. Other interesting U.S. data releases this week include jobless claims and consumer sentiment.”
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;
- On Monday, July’s consumer credit data will be out by 3:00 p.m. ET.
- On Tuesday, August’s NFIB optimism index data will be released by 6:00 a.m. ET.
- On Wednesday, August’s headline and core producer price index data will be announced by 8:30 a.m., and July’s wholesale inventories data will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
- On Thursday, August’s headline and core consumer price index data and the initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 16 will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- August’s monthly U.S. federal budget data will be out by 2:00 p.m. ET.
- On Friday, September’s preliminary consumer sentiment data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Stocks In Focus
- Robinhood Markets Inc. HOOD rose 6.91% in premarket on Monday after it was announced over the weekend that it would be added to the S&P 500 index. The changes will be effective before the market opens on Sept. 22.
- Applovin Corp. APP, up 7.29% and Emcor Group Inc. EME, higher by 2.32% were also set to join the S&P 500 index along with HOOD.
- Children’s Place Inc. PLCE jumped 6.62% after posting better-than-expected sales for the second quarter and also said it has plans to mitigate approximately 80% of the effects of tariffs.
- Planet Labs PBC PL gained 5.97% as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts estimate earnings loss of 4 cents per share on revenue of $65.74 million.
- Dynagas LNG Partners LP DLNG advanced 1.33% as analysts expect it to report earnings of 24 cents per share on revenue of $36.50 million before the opening bell.
- Caseys General Stores Inc. CASY was 0.80% higher as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $5.04 per share on the revenue of $4.48 billion.
- Mission Produce Inc. AVO was 1.45% higher as analysts expect it to report earnings of 14 cents per share on revenue of $320.25 million after the closing bell.
- New Fortress Energy Inc. NFE dropped 12.24% after it missed third-quarter revenue estimates.
Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.58% to hover around $62.85 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.68% to hover around $3,611.27 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,613.58 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.14% lower at the 97.6270 level.
Asian markets closed higher on Monday, except Australia’s ASX 200 index. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, India’s S&P BSE Sensex, South Korea’s Kospi, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices rose. European markets were also higher in early trade.
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