Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities
The US stock market showed mixed performance marked by cautious optimism tempered with volatility, especially in technology stocks.
The S&P 500 index was flat for the last week, reflecting a slight retreat from October’s 2.3% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw slight gains early in the week but lost momentum amid market uncertainty, ending 1.2% lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the most affected, closing the week down about 3%, its worst weekly performance since April.
The Indian stock market was subdued, characterised by modest declines and profit-taking, driven by weak global cues and mixed investor sentiment.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate hikes in 2026 rattled international markets, triggering a pullback across Asian bourses, including India.
Rupee depreciation against the dollar added to inflation concerns, though these headwinds were partially offset by optimism around India’s domestic economic fundamentals.
Market liquidity will be closely monitored as primary market activity intensifies, with five IPOs—including PhysicsWallah and Tenneco—collectively seeking over Rs 10,000 crore in capital this week.
The Nifty declined 0.89% last week while the Sensex fell 0.86%. Broader indices outperformed, with the BSE Mid-Cap index gaining 0.25% and the BSE Small-Cap index closing flat.
Nifty found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (DEMA), triggering a healthy rebound.
The convergence of the downward-sloping trendline (joining the swing highs of 25,669 and 25,448) with the 50 DEMA near 25,300 has reinforced this support zone.
On the upside, the 20 DEMA at 25,590 is likely to act as immediate resistance, while the next hurdle is placed around 25,800.
Wall Street futures rose on Sunday evening after reports suggested US Congress was close to reaching a deal to end the longest-ever government shutdown.
Indian markets are poised to open modestly higher on positive global cues.