Stock market live: D-Street likely to open on a weak note
Indian equity markets are likely to open on a weak note on Monday, with Gift Nifty trading around 24,050, down nearly 199 points, signalling a cautious start for benchmark indices. While Asian markets recovered from early losses despite fresh geopolitical tensions following the latest US-Iran strikes, domestic sentiment is expected to remain subdued amid heightened uncertainty and a potential risk-off mood, Sachin Gupta, VP – Research, Technical Research, Choice Broking Private Limited, told TOI.
Gupta said the Nifty50 staged a strong recovery in the previous two sessions, gaining nearly 1% on Friday and reclaiming its short- and medium-term moving averages, including the 100-day EMA, after last week’s sharp correction. However, he cautioned that the index still remains below the crucial 200-day EMA, making 24,400 the key resistance level that needs to be decisively crossed to confirm a sustained uptrend.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty formed a bullish candlestick after a gap-up opening and reclaimed the falling resistance trendline while moving above the 10-day, 20-day and 100-day EMAs. It also crossed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline, indicating an improvement in the overall price structure.
Momentum indicators have also strengthened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 55.80, approaching a bullish crossover, while the MACD remained above its signal line with expanding positive histogram bars, pointing to improving short-term momentum.
Gupta noted that derivatives data also paints a constructive picture. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) improved sharply to 1.25 from 0.94, reflecting aggressive put writing and stronger bullish positioning among traders. At the same time, the India VIX declined 8.31% to 12.25, signalling easing market volatility and improving investor confidence.
According to the options data, 24,000 remains the strongest immediate support as put writers continue to build positions at the strike, while heavy call writing around the 24,400-24,500 zone makes it the key resistance area.
Overall, Gupta believes the broader technical structure continues to favour the bulls despite indications of a weak opening. He expects the 24,000-23,800 zone to provide strong support, while 24,400 remains the decisive hurdle for a sustained rally. For the near term, he expects the Nifty to trade in the 24,000-24,400 range, with a breakout on either side likely to determine the market’s next directional move.