Sensex Today Live: Cautious start expected
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a flat-to-cautiously positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 24,100, down by 5 points. Asian markets were mixed in early trade as investors assessed month-end portfolio rebalancing flows while closely monitoring developments surrounding the reported US-Iran ceasefire and upcoming diplomatic discussions. Despite mixed global cues, easing volatility and stable crude oil prices are likely to provide support to domestic market sentiment.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 closed with moderate gains but ended well off the day’s high due to profit booking during the second half of trade. The index continued to face resistance around the 24,200 – 24,250 zone, which has emerged as a crucial hurdle over the past several sessions. While the broader trend remains positive, the inability to sustain above this resistance band suggests that consolidation may continue in the near term. The 23,800–23,750 zone remains an important support area, and a decisive move beyond the current resistance could pave the way for an advance toward 24,500–24,600, followed by 24,800.
From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators suggest consolidation with a positive bias. The Nifty formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating rejection at higher levels and continued supply near overhead resistance. The index failed to sustain above the falling resistance trendline connecting the April and June swing highs and also slipped below the 100-day EMA on a closing basis. However, it continues to trade comfortably above its short- and medium-term moving averages, which remain upward sloping. The RSI remained steady at 56.97 with a positive crossover, while the MACD stayed above the signal line despite further contraction in the green histogram bars. This indicates moderation in momentum rather than a reversal of trend.
Derivatives data continues to support a constructive undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.06, remaining above the 1-mark despite a decline from the previous session. This suggests that put writing activity continues to outweigh call writing, indicating that traders maintain a bullish stance while becoming slightly cautious near resistance levels. Meanwhile, India VIX declined 2.5 percent to 13.05, remaining below all key moving averages and reflecting reduced market anxiety. Sustained trading below the 12–13 zone would further strengthen confidence among bulls.
Option chain positioning indicates strong support around the 23,800 strike, where significant put writing continues to be visible. On the upside, the 24,100–24,200 zone remains the immediate resistance area due to persistent call writing activity. A breakout above this band may trigger fresh short covering and accelerate the next leg of the rally.
Bank Nifty ended marginally higher but formed a red candle with a sizeable upper shadow, reflecting profit booking at elevated levels. Despite near-term consolidation, the banking index continues to trade well above all key moving averages, with short-term averages sustaining above medium- and long-term averages. The RSI improved to 66.60 and maintained a bullish crossover, while the MACD remained in positive territory despite a gradual reduction in histogram strength. The overall structure remains positive, although consolidation or range-bound movement may continue before the next directional move emerges. Immediate support is placed near 57,700–57,500, while resistance is seen around 58,500–59,000. Bank Nifty ended marginally higher but formed a red candle with a sizeable upper shadow, reflecting profit booking at elevated levels. Despite near-term consolidation, the banking index continues to trade well above all key moving averages, with short-term averages sustaining above medium- and long-term averages. The RSI improved to 66.60 and maintained a bullish crossover, while the MACD remained in positive territory despite a gradual reduction in histogram strength. The overall structure remains positive, although consolidation or range-bound movement may continue before the next directional move emerges.
Overall, the technical setup remains constructive with a mildly bullish bias. However, the market is currently consolidating below a crucial resistance zone, and a decisive breakout above 24,200–24,250 will be necessary to revive stronger upside momentum. Until then, range-bound trade with stock-specific action is likely to dominate. The immediate range for Nifty is expected between 23,800 and 24,250, with a breakout on either side determining the next directional move,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.