Asia Plus sees Thai stocks gaining on clearer politics, fiscal stimulus hopes
Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, Executive Director at Asia Plus Securities, said that greater political clarity has reduced volatility and improved sentiment in the Thai stock market. With a new prime minister in place and a clear framework for House’s dissolution, he expects stronger momentum for the economy through accelerated budget disbursement and renewed investor confidence.
He added that fund flows are likely to shift from the domestic bond market back into equities, helping the Stock Exchange of Thailand break through the 1,300-point level.
Key factors to watch
Looking ahead, Therdsak highlighted several factors:
- Government policy: The direction of fiscal measures will be crucial, with the greatest impact expected from increased budget spending to stimulate the economy.
- Caretaker period: The four-month window before the expected House dissolution in January is still sufficient to drive growth this year, he noted.
- Cabinet line-up: The composition of the new cabinet remains uncertain, as it will come from a different political camp than the previous government. However, there is room for professional technocrats to be appointed to key posts, which could further reassure investors.
Tisco chief sees stable politics boosting economy, urges top-tier finance minister
Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, CEO of Tisco Securities and Chairman of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), said the appointment of the new prime minister was in line with earlier expectations. He noted that if the new government’s term lasts only four months as agreed before the House’s dissolution, time will be limited to address pressing economic issues.
He emphasised that the key focus will be on the new economic team, particularly the finance minister.
“Whoever takes the role, we hope it will be an A-grade calibre figure who can get to work immediately, both continuing current policies and improving them where needed,” Paiboon said.
He added that with political stability restored, he believes both the Thai economy and stock market will respond more positively for the rest of this year.
Bualuang strategist: pro-growth policies lift domestic plays, but market upside limited
Piriyapon Kongvanich, Investment Strategy Analyst for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said investor sentiment has improved following Anutin’s confirmation as Thailand’s new prime minister, with stocks tied to the Bhumjaithai Party’s stimulus agenda showing gains.
He noted that policy themes such as emergency loan schemes and debt moratoriums are boosting “domestic play” sectors linked to household consumption and the grassroots economy. Beneficiaries include:
- Retail: CPALL, GLOBAL
- Hire-purchase/consumer finance: MTC, SAWAD
- Property: SPALI
- Tourism stimulus: hotel operators like CENTEL
- Transport and construction projects: contractor groups
Meanwhile, the electronics and petrochemical sectors saw profit-taking after earlier rallies, with global slowdown concerns resurfacing as US jobs data weakened.
Fund flows
Foreign investors continued to sell this week, with net sales of around 300 million baht, following 20 billion baht in net sales last month. In contrast, domestic institutions and retail investors provided buying support. NVDR data showed heavy inflows into CPALL and BH, while significant selling was seen in TOP and PTTEP.
Outlook
Piriyapon expects the Thai stock market to remain sideways next week, capped near 1,280 points. Short-term sentiment may still benefit from political clarity, though the incoming cabinet line-up will ultimately set the next direction.
He cautioned that with a minority government, stimulus measures may face limitations, keeping the market’s upside constrained. As a result, he expects trading to become more selective, focusing on stocks with visible earnings improvement.