Intuit: Buy INTU Stock Now?

CHONGQING, CHINA – AUGUST 18: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU), an American business software company known for products such as TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, in front of a screen showing the company’s latest stock market chart on August 18, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

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Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), a financial technology platform, is slated to report its earnings on Thursday, August 21, 2025. Looking back five years, Intuit’s stock posted a positive one-day move after earnings in 71% of instances. Those positive moves carried a median gain of 2.9% and a maximum of 12.6%.

For event-driven traders, these patterns can be informative, though the actual reaction will ultimately depend on how results compare with consensus and broader market expectations. Two primary approaches to consider:

• Pre-Earnings Strategy: Use the historical probability of a positive reaction to establish a position ahead of the release.
• Post-Earnings Strategy: Evaluate how the immediate reaction relates to subsequent medium-term performance, and position after the announcement based on that relationship.

Currently, consensus calls for earnings per share of $2.66 on revenue of $3.75 billion for the upcoming quarter. This compares with the same quarter a year ago, when the company delivered EPS of $1.99 on revenue of $3.18 billion.

From a fundamentals standpoint, Intuit’s market capitalization stands at $201 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $18 billion in revenue, produced operating profit of $4.7 billion, and reported net income of $3.5 billion.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Intuit’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Key notes on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• Across 17 earnings events in the past five years, there were 12 positive and 5 negative 1D moves—equating to a ~71% positive hit rate.
• Focusing on the last 3 years, the positive rate moderates to 67%.
• The median of the 12 positive returns is 2.9%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -3.8%.

Summary statistics for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are presented alongside the data in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk approach (though only useful if correlation is meaningful) is to examine the linkage between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns, pick the pair with the highest correlation, and trade accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D have the strongest relationship, a positive 1D move could justify a “long” stance for the next 5 days. Here is correlation data calculated on a 5-year set and a more recent 3-year set. Also, see – Buy or Fear INTU Stock?

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Peer performance can sometimes shape the post-earnings reaction, and that pricing can begin even before Intuit reports. Below is historical data comparing Intuit’s post-earnings 1D moves with the 1D post-earnings returns of peers that reported just ahead of Intuit.

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