How Will Prudential Financial Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. According to consensus estimates, revenues for the quarter are expected to be around $13.4 billion, indicating a 3% decline year-over-year, while earnings are projected to be approximately $3.23 per share, showing a slight decrease compared to last year. The U.S. insurance operations of the company will continue to be a significant contributor to earnings for this quarter. In Q1, the business experienced improved underwriting and reduced expenses, although certain areas faced weaker investment and fee-related income.

The global investment management division of the company is likely to perform well this quarter as assets under management are expected to increase due to equity market appreciation, net inflows, and enhanced investment performance. The U.S. stock markets surged to record highs in late June, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 11% over Q2 2025 amid indications that the trade conflict between the U.S. and its key trading partners is easing.

The current market capitalization for the company is $37 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months was $61 billion, while net income stood at $2.3 billion. Although much depends on how the results compare to consensus and expectations, recognizing historical trends could skew the odds in your favor if you are a trader influenced by events.

There are two approaches to achieve this: either understand the historical odds and position yourself ahead of the earnings announcement or examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are revealed. That said, if you’re looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having surpassed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return for Prudential Financial

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the previous five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred roughly 45% of the time.
• However, this percentage drops to 33% when examining data for the past 3 years instead of the full 5.
• The median of the 9 positive returns = 2.5%, while the median of the 11 negative returns = -2.2%

Additional information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky tactic (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

At times, the performance of peers can impact the post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the price adjustment might commence before the earnings are disclosed. Here is some historical data regarding the recent post-earnings performance of Prudential Financial stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just prior to Prudential Financial. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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