THE stock market may see a lift from positive earnings results and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ surprise move last Friday to lower bank reserve requirements, analysts said, but global uncertainties could continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) managed a 0.62-percent week-on-week rebound, closing at 6,098.04 last Friday, but is still down 6.60 percent year-to-date amid worries over US trade protectionism and interest rate cuts.
Online stock brokerage firm 2TradeAsia.com noted that “after dropping back below 6,000 to open the week, the local bourse managed to recover as the first round of earnings releases started, but gains were capped as caution permeated.”
“We have repeatedly harped in the past about the White House change’s market disruption potential, but disruption at the corporate level is beginning to manifest in 2026 guidance retraction…,” it added.
2TradeAsia warned of “protracted risk-off sentiment” where investors minimize their exposure to risks until the “external noise” — geopolitical developments and interest rate/inflation trends — stabilize.
Unicapital Group research head Wendy Estacio-Cruz, however, said the PSEi could trade with an upward bias after the central bank said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points (bps) effective March 28.
“This is expected to result in a 5 to 10 bps increase in banks’ net interest margins this year, based on our sentiments,” she noted.
DragonFi Securities Inc. equity research analyst Jarrod Tin, meanwhile, said “we anticipate a cautious trading environment as investors await the upcoming MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) rebalancing.”
JG Summit Holdings Inc. and Universal Robina Corp. will move to the MSCI Philippines’ small cap index from the standard, or large cap index, with Monde Nissin Corp. joining the small cap as well, beginning Feb. 28.
Tin said “a decisive breakout above [the 20-day moving average] could pave the way for a retest of the 6,400 resistance.”
“[G]iven the PSEi’s currently depressed valuations, we remain optimistic about a potential upward bias,” he added.