US nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ended March 2025 were slashed by 911,000 jobs, according to preliminary revisions released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had predicted a downward shift of 682,000 jobs for the period, according to analysts tracked by Bloomberg data.
The revisions follow an August payrolls increase of only 22,000 jobs, according to BLS data released Friday, coming in far below economists’ consensus estimate of 75,000 jobs added.
That data also showed the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years, losing 13,000 jobs compared to prior estimates of 14,000 jobs added.
Last year’s release of this same preliminary annual revision fell during the heated final stretch of the presidential campaign — and became an immediate flash point when it showed the US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than thought.
The August figures released Friday have been interpreted as largely locking in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, shifting the question away from one of whether the central bank will cut rates to just how big a nearly guaranteed cut will be.
Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a cut, with 90% odds of a cut of 25 basis points versus 10% odds of a jumbo 50 basis point cut, according to CME data.