Can Trump’s ’Liberation Day’ tariffs enable gold prices to climb ₹1 lakh peak in 2025?

Gold price today: Gold prices fell by ₹154 to ₹90,721 per 10 grams in futures trading on Wednesday due to subdued demand in the spot market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, June gold contracts dropped by ₹154 or 0.17% to ₹90,721 per 10 grams, with a trading volume of 18,583 lots.

On Tuesday, gold prices reached a record high of ₹91,400 per 10 grams in the futures market, following strong global trends. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold contracts for June delivery surged to an all-time high of ₹91,400 per 10 grams during early trading, on April 1.

In the global market, gold prices have surged past $3,100 per ounce, fuelled by concerns over U.S. tariffs and potential economic fallout, which have driven investors toward safe-haven assets.

“Gold price continue to advance, hovering around all-time highs, as anxious investors flocked to the safe-haven metal, bracing for announcements on U.S. reciprocal tariffs that could escalate the global trade war. Suspense hangs over market as uncertainty is looming large over the details of the U.S. tariffs slated for imposition later in the day, which Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.” The White House confirmed new tariffs will be imposed, though it provided no details on the size or scope. Trump’s tariff policies could ratchet up inflation, potentially putting the brakes on economic growth and escalating trade disputes. Disappointing new U.S. jobs data and a weak manufacturing report highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve officials that employment could slip. Investors are also awaiting ADP employment report due later in the day, and non-farm payrolls report on Friday that could provide insights into the Fed’s future path for interest rate cuts. As market remains cautious ahead of the Liberation day announcement, Dollar index also becomes steady once again hovering ~104,” said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd.

Gold likely to surge to ₹1 lakh in 2025?

Currently, gold on MCX is trading is around ₹91100 around ₹9,000 away from the ₹1 lakh mark and reaching it would require a further increase of approximately 10% from current levels.

“For the domestic market one of the major factors for prices to move higher will be a weaker rupee and further weakening of the currency will support a move towards ₹1 lakh. We see more positives than negatives for the ₹1 lakh target this year but if economic stability returns and central banks maintain a tight monetary policy, gold’s rise could be slower,” said Sriram Iyer, Senior Analyst Reliance Securities.

Chintan Mehta, CEO, Abans Financial Services Ltd, believes that the ongoing rally in gold is extended rather than the start of a fresh uptrend. “We believe this is more of an extended rally rather than the start of a fresh uptrend, and we do not expect prices to reach ₹1 lakh in 2025. Most bullish factors have already been priced in. With these elements largely accounted for, there may not be enough fresh catalysts to push gold beyond the ₹1 lakh mark,” Mehta said.

Is it right time to invest in gold amid ongoing rally?

Gold had a stellar start in 2025, delivering over 18.64 returns in Q1, making it the second-best quarter after Q3 1986. For 2024-25, the return stands at 39.73 per cent.

“Given this momentum, an additional 10-12% gain ( ₹1,00,000 level) in the remaining three quarters of 2025 cannot be ruled out. Gold continues to set new records daily, driven by global economic uncertainty, inflation, central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and rupee depreciation,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd.

Kalantri further recommended investors to avoid fresh investments at this level and short-term investors can consider profit booking in the ongoing rally.

“ We believe gold is entering the final phase of its rally heading into Q2 2025, and new investors may find themselves trapped, similar to trends seen in the equity markets. Therefore, we do not recommend fresh investments at this level. Short-term investors who entered the market 1-2 years ago should consider gradually booking profits. Chasing an extra 7-10% return could put existing handsome gains at risk,” Kalantri said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.