The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs Thursday. The Dow posted solid gains on top of that. The way I see it, the April rally did not come from one catalyst. Earnings held. Every dip got bought. Geopolitical risk stopped getting worse and that was enough. April did not need a clean story. It just needed the bad news to stop accelerating.
Stocks in the News
Roku surged after beating revenue expectations and guiding higher. Twilio is one of the biggest movers of the morning after a strong earnings beat. Reddit jumped on solid user growth and improving guidance. Estee Lauder is higher after better sales and additional cost cuts. Moderna beat expectations and held its full-year forecast.
On the downside, Roblox is getting hit hard after cutting its full-year forecast. Rivian is lower despite a better than expected loss as the electric vehicle space stays under pressure. Amgen slipped after a cautious outlook raise.
Crude Oil Is the Variable I’m Watching
Crude is down this morning and the Dow is getting a lift from it. I’ve watched this connection play out enough times to know how it works. Oil pulls back, the inflation math looks better, rate cut talk gets a little louder, and money rotates out of energy into everything else. That is exactly what is happening right now. Energy stocks are paying for it and the rest of the market does not care.
The part I keep coming back to is how fast that can flip. Crude does not need a big move to change the tone in here. I’ve seen crude spike into the close and take a perfectly good rally with it. April was a big month. Big months create big profits and big profits create sellers when oil gives them the excuse. The Dow does not need crude to fall apart. It needs crude to stay out of the way. Right now it is. That is the variable I am watching all session.