The veteran investment strategist recently left BMO Capital Markets to start his own venture, Humilis Investment Strategies.
Regarding tariffs, he said the full scope of their impact on markets has yet to be seen.
On crypto, he quipped, “What did we learn about crypto? Correlated asset.”
Instead, Belski prefers to stick to his guns. If the markets go down, he said his plan is to buy more of the investments he likes. Presently though, he’s maintaining his bullish outlook on the Canadian and U.S. stock markets.
The industry veteran, who has consistently stated that the U.S. stock market is in the midst of a big 25-year secular bull market that started in 2009 and that Canada’s along for the ride, said that run continues today.
“We have at least 10 years left,” Belski told PMAC attendees.
“I think Canada will be up high single digits next year, we’re returning to normalization. The U.S. will outperform by a couple basis points, but not big. I think we have low double digits in the U.S.”
The sectors to watch for in the U.S. in the new year are tech, communication services, health care and parts of financials, he said.
Specifically speaking about tech, he said he doesn’t think there’s an AI bubble at the moment and that his AI stock picks are Nvidia Corp., Broadcom Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Belski also named Palantir Technologies Inc. as a standout U.S. stock, saying it’s “what Amazon was 10 years ago.”
As for Canada, he said it has an “amazing stock picking market, and it benefits from this notion of scarcity versus capacity.” Some of his favourite Canadian stocks are Dollarama Inc., Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., Aritzia LP, Waste Connections, Inc. and Shopify Inc.
Canada’s big banks, which Belski likened to a cartel, are performing well lately due to excess reserves in 2023, but he expects their performance to diverge in the new year. Therefore, he said, “You have to be a lot more selective in the banks, not just own all five or six banks” — and the same goes for insurance companies.
At the end of the bull market, Belski expects there to be a new emerging market. For now, though, he’s eyeing opportunities in Japan and the Scandinavian region.
He also shared his outlook on precious metals and oil, saying that he’s “getting more worried about gold, because everybody loves gold,” so he’s looking to branch out with copper and other metals, while “oil prices are going to go lower.”
Further, Belski spoke about the probability of a recession happening: “We will have a recession. I’m guessing it’s probably a CapEx recession.” That’s a term some economists and market analysts use to refer to a slump in business capital expenditures that contributes to or even causes a broader economic downturn.
Belski said his firm Humilis will soon be releasing its inaugural report, which will provide an in-depth look at the year ahead for Canada and the U.S.