Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager overseeing roughly €2.4 trillion ($2.8 trillion) in assets, is making a straightforward bet: Asia’s AI-fueled stock rally isn’t done yet. The catch, and there’s always a catch, is that the Federal Reserve could spoil the party.
The firm’s global head of emerging markets strategy, Alessia Berardi, laid out the case on June 5. Strong earnings, reasonable valuations, and a sustained wave of capital expenditure from US tech giants are keeping the wind at Asia’s back. But if US interest-rate expectations shift meaningfully, the spending pipeline that feeds this entire trade could start to narrow.
The bull case for Asian tech
American hyperscalers, think Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, are pouring enormous sums into AI infrastructure. Much of that money flows directly to Asian chipmakers and hardware manufacturers. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have posted record rallies as demand for memory chips and advanced semiconductors surges.
South Korean and Taiwanese technology firms sit at the center of the global AI supply chain. When US companies increase their AI capital expenditure budgets, orders for high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, and cutting-edge chips climb.
Berardi’s assessment is that valuations in these markets remain reasonable relative to earnings growth. That’s a meaningful distinction from the dot-com era, when stock prices decoupled entirely from fundamentals.
“We don’t see a bubble,” Berardi stated.
An earlier analysis published on April 17, 2026, explicitly drew parallels between the current AI cycle and the dot-com period. The conclusion: despite surface-level similarities in market concentration, the explosive valuation dynamics that defined the late-1990s mania simply aren’t present today.
The Fed-shaped risk nobody can ignore
US interest rates and Treasury yields directly influence how much capital large technology firms are willing to deploy on long-term infrastructure projects. Amundi’s framework identifies a transmission mechanism that runs from Fed policy through hyperscaler capex budgets and into Asian semiconductor order books. If the Fed holds steady or cuts, the pipeline stays healthy. If rate expectations shift upward, the entire chain faces pressure.
What this means for investors
Amundi’s analysis is entirely focused on traditional equity markets. There’s no mention of crypto tokens, digital assets, or blockchain-related plays.
For equity investors, the takeaway is cautiously constructive. Asian tech firms with direct exposure to AI infrastructure spending, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan, remain the preferred vehicles. The earnings backdrop supports current prices, and Amundi’s bubble-dismissal provides institutional cover for staying long.
Capex guidance from the next round of US tech earnings will either validate Amundi’s thesis or force a rethink. That’s the data point that moves Asian markets, and right now, everything hinges on whether the Fed lets the spending continue uninterrupted.