New evidence reveals the impact of rumours about tax changes in the Budget on the property market.
Listings are down and withdrawals are up, according to research by AI specialist data firm PriceHubble.
Speculation
After speculation began in August, there were 6.1% fewer new property listings than in the first half of the month, and this affected most price bands.
And there was a 23% rise in properties being withdrawn from the market without a sale.
While the sharpest rise was among homes under £500,000, where withdrawals were up 27%, exactly the homes most likely to benefit from a post-Budget Stamp Duty cut.
These withdrawals still make up a small share of the market – 4% of properties in late August, compared with 3.2% early in the month – but the increase is significant, PriceHubble says.
Imposed
Speculation about what Chancellor Rachel Reeves (main picture) will do in the Budget, that will take place on 26 November, includes whether Stamp Duty could be replaced with a seller’s tax on properties over £500,000.
It was also rumoured that National Insurance could be added to landlords’ incomes, and a Mansion Tax could be imposed on houses over £1.5 million.
PriceHubble polled UK estate agents in early September:
– Almost half of estate agents reported more fall throughs, fewer listings, fewer applicants, or all three
– 35% noted a fall in new listings
– Others highlighted hesitancy among buyers and sellers, including downsizers delaying their decision to move
The impact of the rumours is already clear: fewer listings, more withdrawals, and an increased risk of a slowdown in transactions.”
“Over the next few months, the UK housing market is likely to enter a holding pattern. Sellers at the top end may accelerate deals, while buyers at the lower end may wait for clarity,” PriceHubble says.
“The final shape of the reforms remains to be seen, but the impact of the rumours is already clear: fewer listings, more withdrawals, and an increased risk of a slowdown in transactions.”
House prices begin to fall as Budget fears bite