Looking ahead to October’s policy meetings
The macro calendar will be relatively muted in the coming days as China celebrates National Day during the Golden Week holiday. Markets will then turn their attention to the Communist Party’s annual conclave scheduled for 20-23 October.
Key leaders will review the next five-year plan during this critical meeting. How Beijing addresses structural problems around deflation and the property sector will prove critical for market direction in the months ahead.
China’s target to deliver 5% GDP growth in 2025 adds urgency to these policy discussions. Whilst the first two quarters exceeded the target, many expect the growth rate to moderate in the second half as much of the export demand has been front-loaded.
Policy announcements around stimulus measures, property market support, or corporate tax relief could trigger significant market movements. Traders should prepare for potential volatility around these policy meetings and position accordingly.
The sustainability of the manufacturing recovery also warrants close monitoring. If export demand fades after the trade deadline passes, the sector could quickly return to contraction.