Investing.com — UBS said European companies in energy-intensive sectors such as industrials, consumer goods, autos, IT and chemicals could benefit if a U.S.-Iran deal succeeds in easing disruption to oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
In its Daily Europe note, the broker said that if a reopening of the strait “is implemented and sustained,” it expects “a gradual easing of energy supply constraints, lower input costs, and improved earnings visibility for energy-intensive and consumer sensitive European companies.”
The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed at a record high this week, its first since Feb. 27, the day before the Iran conflict began, UBS said.
The S&P 500 took around a month and a half to return to its pre-conflict level and is almost 10% higher than when the war started, a gap UBS attributed to Europe’s greater reliance on imported fuel and the heavier weighting of the outperforming U.S. technology sector.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasted the roughly 100-day conflict, UBS said. Citing a Bloomberg report on a final draft of the peace deal, UBS said the United States and Iran will work to restore traffic through the strait to pre-war levels within 30 days of the agreement’s signing in Switzerland on Friday.
Washington would issue sanctions waivers for Iranian crude oil and petrochemical exports and, with regional partners, plan to provide at least $300 billion to rehabilitate Iran, the draft showed.
Iran’s frozen assets “will be released and made fully available,” though no timeline was given, according to the draft. In return, Iran must commit to never acquiring a nuclear weapon and to allowing free navigation in the strait, a U.S. official told Bloomberg.
Beyond energy-linked sectors, UBS pointed to warehouse automation, travel, chemicals, autos, IT and infrastructure as areas to benefit from a broader recovery beyond the narrow market leadership of recent months.
It flagged a “Luxury & Lifestyles” category spanning consumer products, media, sports, travel and wellness, with a total addressable market of about $5.8 trillion by 2030 and annual growth of about 6% through the decade’s end.
Within the Eurozone, UBS said Germany offered attractive valuations and dividend yields, with gross domestic product forecast to grow 0.6% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
Consensus estimates point to high-single-digit earnings growth and a dividend yield of about 2.5%, UBS said, favoring German companies tied to defense, artificial intelligence and the energy transition. UBS kept a “neutral” rating on Eurozone equities, citing energy, policy and competitive risks.